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Game plans

Saturday, November 7

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Pacers at Bucks

How the Pacers beat the Bucks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Pacers defense there ranks 22nd (39.4% allowed).
  3. TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Bucks at 96.8 (23rd). Run and make them keep up.

How the Bucks beat the Pacers

  1. AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
  4. TempoSlow it downThe Bucks play at 96.8 possessions per 48 minutes (23rd in pace), the Pacers at 100.3 (8th). Make it a half-court game.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneIND offenseMIL defenseMIL offenseIND defense
At the rim64.1% (26th)68.5% (25th)68.7% (5th)66.3% (17th)
Paint45.0% (15th)41.1% (3rd)42.7% (23rd)47.1% (27th)
Midrange39.8% (22nd)42.0% (15th)42.3% (12th)45.4% (30th)
Corner 337.2% (23rd)41.1% (29th)42.9% (2nd)39.4% (22nd)
Above-the-break 335.1% (15th)36.4% (26th)36.9% (2nd)34.2% (8th)

02Matchups on Sat, Nov 7

7 games
  • Nuggets at Pacers5:00 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Pacers beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Nuggets at 97.7 (20th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nets at Hawks7:30 PM ET

    How the Nets beat the Hawks

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Hawks beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Hawks shoot 36.4% from above the break (4th), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).
    2. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th), and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Knicks at Cavaliers8:00 PM ET

    How the Knicks beat the Cavaliers

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    How the Cavaliers beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 25th (40.1% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at Thunder8:00 PM ET

    How the Wizards beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Wizards

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd), and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Thunder defense there ranks 1st (38.0% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at Warriors8:30 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Warriors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most) and they make 39.5% (8th). The Magic defense there ranks 13th (38.5% allowed).

    How the Warriors beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at Suns9:00 PM ET

    How the Rockets beat the Suns

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    How the Suns beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at Trail Blazers10:00 PM ET

    How the Spurs beat the Trail Blazers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.