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Game plans · Monday, December 28

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Rockets at Lakers

How the Rockets beat the Lakers

  1. AttackAttack midrange12.8% of Rockets shots come from midrange (2nd most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Rockets defense there ranks 15th (44.1% allowed).
  4. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Lakers at 97.6 (21st). Make it a half-court game.

How the Lakers beat the Rockets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Lakers defense there ranks 9th (43.0% allowed).
  3. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Lakers play at 97.6 possessions per 48 minutes (21st in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneHOU offenseLAL defenseLAL offenseHOU defense
At the rim65.8% (16th)70.5% (29th)73.4% (1st)65.3% (12th)
Paint47.2% (6th)43.0% (9th)48.8% (1st)44.1% (15th)
Midrange40.2% (20th)44.7% (29th)44.4% (5th)39.1% (2nd)
Corner 337.3% (21st)37.7% (8th)34.9% (29th)38.5% (12th)
Above-the-break 336.1% (7th)34.2% (10th)36.3% (6th)34.1% (6th)

Matchups on Mon, Dec 28

4 games
  • Pelicans at Raptors7:30 PM ET

    How the Pelicans beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Pelicans defense there ranks 18th (66.7% allowed).

    How the Raptors beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at Celtics8:00 PM ET

    How the Cavaliers beat the Celtics

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 25th (36.1% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Cavaliers play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Celtics beat the Cavaliers

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at Suns9:00 PM ET

    How the Warriors beat the Suns

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd) and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Suns beat the Warriors

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd), and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at Nuggets10:30 PM ET

    How the Timberwolves beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Timberwolves shoot 67.4% at the rim (8th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.