Game plans
Thursday, November 12
How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.
01Plan any matchup
Rockets at Suns
How the Rockets beat the Suns
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
How the Suns beat the Rockets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).
- Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Suns defense there ranks 14th (44.1% allowed).
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.
| Zone | HOU offense | PHX defense | PHX offense | HOU defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 65.8% (16th) | 67.9% (23rd) | 65.8% (17th) | 65.3% (12th) |
| Paint | 47.2% (6th) | 44.1% (14th) | 43.7% (19th) | 44.1% (15th) |
| Midrange | 40.2% (20th) | 42.0% (16th) | 42.3% (11th) | 39.1% (2nd) |
| Corner 3 | 37.3% (21st) | 36.4% (3rd) | 39.6% (7th) | 38.5% (12th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 36.1% (7th) | 34.0% (5th) | 35.1% (13th) | 34.1% (6th) |
02Matchups on Thu, Nov 12
- Raptors at 76ers
How the Raptors beat the 76ers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).
How the 76ers beat the Raptors
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
- Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The 76ers defense there ranks 14th (65.4% allowed).
- Pistons at Wizards
How the Pistons beat the Wizards
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd), and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st), and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
How the Wizards beat the Pistons
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd) and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
- Mavericks at Timberwolves
How the Mavericks beat the Timberwolves
- Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
How the Timberwolves beat the Mavericks
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).
- Hornets at Suns
How the Hornets beat the Suns
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th), and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd) and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
How the Suns beat the Hornets
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Suns defense there ranks 5th (34.0% allowed).
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th) and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.