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Game plans · Monday, March 15

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Warriors at Kings

How the Warriors beat the Kings

  1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Warriors defense there ranks 26th (47.0% allowed).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Zach LaVineLaVine (19.2 points per game): best from the corners (45% on 55 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%). 37% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

How the Kings beat the Warriors

  1. AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
  4. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most) and they make 39.5% (8th). The Kings defense there ranks 17th (39.0% allowed).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneGSW offenseSAC defenseSAC offenseGSW defense
At the rim68.9% (4th)69.8% (28th)68.2% (6th)67.8% (22nd)
Paint43.4% (21st)48.7% (29th)45.7% (9th)47.0% (26th)
Midrange39.5% (23rd)43.7% (27th)41.8% (16th)43.1% (26th)
Corner 339.5% (8th)39.0% (17th)35.1% (28th)40.9% (27th)
Above-the-break 334.1% (24th)37.6% (30th)33.7% (25th)34.4% (13th)

Matchups on Mon, Mar 15

5 games
  • Raptors at 76ers7:00 PM ET

    How the Raptors beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The 76ers defense there ranks 14th (65.4% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at Nets7:30 PM ET

    How the Pacers beat the Nets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Nets at 96.2 (25th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Nets beat the Pacers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Pacers at 100.3 (8th). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at Bulls8:00 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Magic shoot 43.0% from midrange (10th), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    How the Bulls beat the Magic

    1. AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at Grizzlies8:00 PM ET

    How the Suns beat the Grizzlies

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Suns defense there ranks 14th (44.1% allowed).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Suns

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Grizzlies play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hawks at Mavericks9:30 PM ET

    How the Hawks beat the Mavericks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    How the Mavericks beat the Hawks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.