Game plans · Tuesday, December 22
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Warriors at Bucks
How the Warriors beat the Bucks
- Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
- Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Warriors defense there ranks 27th (40.9% allowed).
- AttackAttack the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most), and the Bucks allow 41.1% there (29th of 30).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Bucks allow 36.4% there (26th of 30).
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Warriors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th), and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
How the Bucks beat the Warriors
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
- AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Warriors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
- Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most) and they make 39.5% (8th). The Bucks defense there ranks 29th (41.1% allowed).
| Zone | GSW offense | MIL defense | MIL offense | GSW defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 68.9% (4th) | 68.5% (25th) | 68.7% (5th) | 67.8% (22nd) |
| Paint | 43.4% (21st) | 41.1% (3rd) | 42.7% (23rd) | 47.0% (26th) |
| Midrange | 39.5% (23rd) | 42.0% (15th) | 42.3% (12th) | 43.1% (26th) |
| Corner 3 | 39.5% (8th) | 41.1% (29th) | 42.9% (2nd) | 40.9% (27th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 34.1% (24th) | 36.4% (26th) | 36.9% (2nd) | 34.4% (13th) |
Matchups on Tue, Dec 22
- Raptors at Wizards
How the Raptors beat the Wizards
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th), and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
- AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
How the Wizards beat the Raptors
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
- Pistons at Thunder
How the Pistons beat the Thunder
- Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
How the Thunder beat the Pistons
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
- Mavericks at Warriors
How the Mavericks beat the Warriors
- AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
How the Warriors beat the Mavericks
- TempoSlow it downThe Warriors play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.