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Game plans · Thursday, December 17

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Warriors at Bucks

How the Warriors beat the Bucks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Warriors defense there ranks 27th (40.9% allowed).
  3. AttackAttack the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most), and the Bucks allow 41.1% there (29th of 30).
  4. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Bucks allow 36.4% there (26th of 30).
  5. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Warriors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th), and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).

How the Bucks beat the Warriors

  1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).
  3. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Warriors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
  5. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most) and they make 39.5% (8th). The Bucks defense there ranks 29th (41.1% allowed).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneGSW offenseMIL defenseMIL offenseGSW defense
At the rim68.9% (4th)68.5% (25th)68.7% (5th)67.8% (22nd)
Paint43.4% (21st)41.1% (3rd)42.7% (23rd)47.0% (26th)
Midrange39.5% (23rd)42.0% (15th)42.3% (12th)43.1% (26th)
Corner 339.5% (8th)41.1% (29th)42.9% (2nd)40.9% (27th)
Above-the-break 334.1% (24th)36.4% (26th)36.9% (2nd)34.4% (13th)

Matchups on Thu, Dec 17

3 games
  • Trail Blazers at Pacers7:00 PM ET

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Pacers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 312.2% of Trail Blazers shots come from the corners (5th most), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Pacers beat the Trail Blazers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at 76ers7:00 PM ET

    How the Mavericks beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the 76ers beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe 76ers shoot 43.0% from midrange (9th), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hawks at Nuggets9:00 PM ET

    How the Hawks beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Hawks play at 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes (7th in pace), the Nuggets at 97.7 (20th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Nuggets beat the Hawks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Nuggets play at 97.7 possessions per 48 minutes (20th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.