Game plans · Tuesday, November 24
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Warriors at Clippers
How the Warriors beat the Clippers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).
- TempoPush the paceThe Warriors play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.
How the Clippers beat the Warriors
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Clippers shoot 41.6% from the corners (5th), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
- AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Clippers shots come in the paint (6th most), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
- Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most) and they make 39.5% (8th). The Clippers defense there ranks 15th (38.8% allowed).
- TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Warriors at 98.3 (18th). Make it a half-court game.
| Zone | GSW offense | LAC defense | LAC offense | GSW defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 68.9% (4th) | 67.2% (20th) | 69.4% (3rd) | 67.8% (22nd) |
| Paint | 43.4% (21st) | 43.5% (10th) | 45.3% (12th) | 47.0% (26th) |
| Midrange | 39.5% (23rd) | 39.4% (3rd) | 41.4% (17th) | 43.1% (26th) |
| Corner 3 | 39.5% (8th) | 38.8% (15th) | 41.6% (5th) | 40.9% (27th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 34.1% (24th) | 35.6% (22nd) | 35.1% (14th) | 34.4% (13th) |
Matchups on Tue, Nov 24
- Pistons at Magic
How the Pistons beat the Magic
- Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
- AttackAttack the rim36.0% of Pistons shots come at the rim (3rd most), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).
How the Magic beat the Pistons
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
- Celtics at Wizards
How the Celtics beat the Wizards
- TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
- AttackAttack the rimThe Celtics shoot 70.5% at the rim (2nd), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
How the Wizards beat the Celtics
- TempoPush the paceThe Wizards play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th) and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
- Mavericks at Nuggets
How the Mavericks beat the Nuggets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Mavericks shots come in the paint (8th most), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).
How the Nuggets beat the Mavericks
- AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.