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Game plans

Wednesday, April 1

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Warriors at Nuggets

How the Warriors beat the Nuggets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
  2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

How the Nuggets beat the Warriors

  1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
  3. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
  5. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most) and they make 39.5% (8th). The Nuggets defense there ranks 4th (36.5% allowed).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneGSW offenseDEN defenseDEN offenseGSW defense
At the rim68.9% (4th)69.1% (27th)66.7% (13th)67.8% (22nd)
Paint43.4% (21st)45.3% (22nd)48.4% (2nd)47.0% (26th)
Midrange39.5% (23rd)40.4% (10th)44.8% (3rd)43.1% (26th)
Corner 339.5% (8th)36.5% (4th)44.2% (1st)40.9% (27th)
Above-the-break 334.1% (24th)34.2% (11th)37.8% (1st)34.4% (13th)

02Matchups on Wed, Apr 1

9 games
  • 76ers at WizardsFinal

    How the 76ers beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the rim33.4% of 76ers shots come at the rim (5th most), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The 76ers defense there ranks 11th (40.7% allowed).

    How the Wizards beat the 76ers

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe 76ers force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hawks at MagicFinal

    How the Hawks beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    How the Magic beat the Hawks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at HeatFinal

    How the Celtics beat the Heat

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).

    How the Heat beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Heat defense there ranks 16th (34.7% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Knicks at GrizzliesFinal

    How the Knicks beat the Grizzlies

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Knicks grab 29.3% of their misses (5th), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Knicks shoot 44.9% from midrange (2nd), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Knicks grab 29.3% of their misses (5th) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at RaptorsFinal

    How the Kings beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Kings defense there ranks 28th (69.8% allowed).

    How the Raptors beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at BullsFinal

    How the Pacers beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrange11.6% of Pacers shots come from midrange (7th most), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    How the Bulls beat the Pacers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bucks at RocketsFinal

    How the Bucks beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Bucks defense there ranks 3rd (41.1% allowed).

    How the Rockets beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Rockets defense there ranks 12th (38.5% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at JazzFinal

    How the Nuggets beat the Jazz

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).

    How the Jazz beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at WarriorsFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.9% of Spurs shots come from the corners (1st most), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    How the Warriors beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.