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Game plans

Wednesday, November 11

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Pistons at Wizards

How the Pistons beat the Wizards

  1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd), and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
  2. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st), and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
  3. AttackAttack the rim36.0% of Pistons shots come at the rim (3rd most), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
  4. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Pistons defense there ranks 5th (39.7% allowed).
  5. TempoSlow it downThe Pistons play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.

How the Wizards beat the Pistons

  1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd) and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
  2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Wizards play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Run and make them keep up.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneDET offenseWAS defenseWAS offenseDET defense
At the rim66.3% (15th)68.5% (26th)67.3% (9th)61.9% (2nd)
Paint42.0% (24th)40.6% (2nd)38.9% (28th)43.8% (12th)
Midrange41.9% (15th)41.9% (14th)43.4% (8th)39.7% (5th)
Corner 337.3% (20th)40.9% (28th)39.2% (10th)38.5% (11th)
Above-the-break 334.8% (19th)35.5% (20th)34.9% (16th)33.1% (1st)

02Matchups on Wed, Nov 11

10 games
  • Wizards at Pacers7:00 PM ET

    How the Wizards beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    How the Pacers beat the Wizards

    1. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Pacers defense there ranks 30th (45.4% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony DavisDavis (20.4 points per game): best in the paint (44% on 77 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (38%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at Knicks7:00 PM ET

    How the Cavaliers beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 25th (40.1% allowed).

    How the Knicks beat the Cavaliers

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at Raptors7:00 PM ET

    How the Celtics beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Celtics defense there ranks 7th (64.8% allowed).

    How the Raptors beat the Celtics

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Raptors defense there ranks 2nd (33.7% allowed).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at Bulls8:00 PM ET

    How the Spurs beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Spurs shoot 43.6% from midrange (7th), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    How the Bulls beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at Grizzlies8:00 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at Bucks8:00 PM ET

    How the Lakers beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Lakers defense there ranks 8th (37.7% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nets at Pelicans8:00 PM ET

    How the Nets beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    How the Pelicans beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Pelicans shoot 39.2% from the corners (9th), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at Jazz9:00 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Magic

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at Rockets9:30 PM ET

    How the Warriors beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Warriors defense there ranks 26th (47.0% allowed).

    How the Rockets beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrange12.8% of Rockets shots come from midrange (2nd most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at Trail Blazers10:00 PM ET

    How the Thunder beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd), and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Thunder

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd) and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.