Game plans · Monday, March 2
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Pistons at Spurs
How the Pistons beat the Spurs
- Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
How the Spurs beat the Pistons
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
| Zone | DET offense | SAS defense | SAS offense | DET defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 66.3% (15th) | 62.7% (5th) | 67.1% (12th) | 61.9% (2nd) |
| Paint | 42.0% (24th) | 42.5% (7th) | 45.7% (10th) | 43.8% (12th) |
| Midrange | 41.9% (15th) | 42.5% (22nd) | 43.6% (7th) | 39.7% (5th) |
| Corner 3 | 37.3% (20th) | 34.6% (1st) | 38.9% (12th) | 38.5% (11th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 34.8% (19th) | 35.4% (19th) | 34.4% (20th) | 33.1% (1st) |
Matchups on Mon, Mar 2
- Rockets at Wizards
How the Rockets beat the Wizards
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
- TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
How the Wizards beat the Rockets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
- Celtics at Bucks
How the Celtics beat the Bucks
- Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
- Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Celtics defense there ranks 2nd (36.2% allowed).
How the Bucks beat the Celtics
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Bucks defense there ranks 26th (36.4% allowed).
- Nuggets at Jazz
How the Nuggets beat the Jazz
- AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
How the Jazz beat the Nuggets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).
- Clippers at Warriors
How the Clippers beat the Warriors
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Clippers shoot 41.6% from the corners (5th), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
How the Warriors beat the Clippers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.