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Game plans

Wednesday, March 25

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Nuggets at Spurs

How the Nuggets beat the Spurs

  1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

How the Spurs beat the Nuggets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
  2. AttackAttack the rim32.3% of Spurs shots come at the rim (7th most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).
  3. AttackAttack the paintThe Spurs shoot 45.7% in the paint (10th), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneDEN offenseSAS defenseSAS offenseDEN defense
At the rim66.7% (13th)62.7% (5th)67.1% (12th)69.1% (27th)
Paint48.4% (2nd)42.5% (7th)45.7% (10th)45.3% (22nd)
Midrange44.8% (3rd)42.5% (22nd)43.6% (7th)40.4% (10th)
Corner 344.2% (1st)34.6% (1st)38.9% (12th)36.5% (4th)
Above-the-break 337.8% (1st)35.4% (19th)34.4% (20th)34.2% (11th)

02Matchups on Wed, Mar 25

12 games
  • Hawks at PistonsFinal

    How the Hawks beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Hawks play at 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes (7th in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Pistons beat the Hawks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Pistons play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at PacersFinal

    How the Lakers beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).

    How the Pacers beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Pacers defense there ranks 27th (47.1% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at 76ersFinal

    How the Bulls beat the 76ers

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe 76ers shoot 43.0% from midrange (9th), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at CelticsFinal

    How the Thunder beat the Celtics

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Thunder defense there ranks 23rd (35.6% allowed).

    How the Celtics beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at CavaliersFinal

    How the Heat beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Heat shoot 35.6% from above the break (9th), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Cavaliers beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Cavaliers play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at GrizzliesFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.9% of Spurs shots come from the corners (1st most), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Spurs defense there ranks 7th (42.5% allowed).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at JazzFinal

    How the Wizards beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Jazz allow 44.1% there (28th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the corner 311.9% of Jazz shots come from the corners (7th most), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Jazz defense there ranks 28th (44.1% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at TimberwolvesFinal

    How the Rockets beat the Timberwolves

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Timberwolves at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 8th (42.9% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at NuggetsFinal

    How the Mavericks beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Mavericks shots come in the paint (8th most), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nets at WarriorsFinal

    How the Nets beat the Warriors

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Warriors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    How the Warriors beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bucks at Trail BlazersFinal

    How the Bucks beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Trail Blazers force turnovers on 13.0% of plays (7th) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Bucks play at 96.8 possessions per 48 minutes (23rd in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Trail Blazers defense there ranks 19th (39.0% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at ClippersFinal

    How the Raptors beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    How the Clippers beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Clippers defense there ranks 20th (67.2% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.