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Game plans · Tuesday, January 6

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Nuggets at Celtics

How the Nuggets beat the Celtics

  1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Nuggets shoot 37.8% from above the break (1st), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
  2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Nuggets defense there ranks 11th (34.2% allowed).
  3. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Nuggets play at 97.7 possessions per 48 minutes (20th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
  5. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).

How the Celtics beat the Nuggets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
  2. AttackAttack the rimThe Celtics shoot 70.5% at the rim (2nd), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).
  3. AttackAttack the paintThe Celtics shoot 48.2% in the paint (3rd), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).
  4. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Nuggets at 97.7 (20th). Make it a half-court game.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneDEN offenseBOS defenseBOS offenseDEN defense
At the rim66.7% (13th)64.8% (7th)70.5% (2nd)69.1% (27th)
Paint48.4% (2nd)41.4% (4th)48.2% (3rd)45.3% (22nd)
Midrange44.8% (3rd)42.5% (21st)39.9% (21st)40.4% (10th)
Corner 344.2% (1st)36.2% (2nd)41.8% (4th)36.5% (4th)
Above-the-break 337.8% (1st)35.7% (24th)35.6% (10th)34.2% (11th)

Matchups on Tue, Jan 6

6 games
  • Cavaliers at PacersFinal

    How the Cavaliers beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Pacers beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at WizardsFinal

    How the Magic beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Magic defense there ranks 18th (42.1% allowed).

    How the Wizards beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Wizards shoot 67.3% at the rim (9th), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at GrizzliesFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.9% of Spurs shots come from the corners (1st most), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Spurs defense there ranks 7th (42.5% allowed).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at TimberwolvesFinal

    How the Heat beat the Timberwolves

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Timberwolves at 99.8 (9th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Timberwolves beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Timberwolves play at 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes (9th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at PelicansFinal

    How the Lakers beat the Pelicans

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.

    How the Pelicans beat the Lakers

    1. AttackAttack the rim40.4% of Pelicans shots come at the rim (1st most), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at KingsFinal

    How the Mavericks beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Mavericks shots come in the paint (8th most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).

    How the Kings beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.