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Game plans · Thursday, January 1

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Nuggets at Nets

How the Nuggets beat the Nets

  1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Nuggets shoot 37.8% from above the break (1st), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).
  3. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).

How the Nets beat the Nuggets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
  2. AttackAttack the rim30.7% of Nets shots come at the rim (10th most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneDEN offenseBKN defenseBKN offenseDEN defense
At the rim66.7% (13th)67.0% (19th)63.4% (27th)69.1% (27th)
Paint48.4% (2nd)46.6% (25th)40.1% (27th)45.3% (22nd)
Midrange44.8% (3rd)41.2% (13th)36.8% (28th)40.4% (10th)
Corner 344.2% (1st)42.3% (30th)36.8% (26th)36.5% (4th)
Above-the-break 337.8% (1st)36.4% (28th)33.2% (27th)34.2% (11th)

Matchups on Thu, Jan 1

5 games
  • Rockets at NetsFinal

    How the Rockets beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Rockets shoot 36.1% from above the break (7th), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    How the Nets beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Nets defense there ranks 25th (46.6% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at PistonsFinal

    How the Heat beat the Pistons

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    How the Pistons beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Pistons play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • 76ers at MavericksFinal

    How the 76ers beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe 76ers shoot 43.0% from midrange (9th), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    How the Mavericks beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at KingsFinal

    How the Celtics beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Celtics shoot 70.5% at the rim (2nd), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).

    How the Kings beat the Celtics

    1. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Kings defense there ranks 30th (37.6% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Jazz at ClippersFinal

    How the Jazz beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Jazz play at 101.6 possessions per 48 minutes (3rd in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Clippers beat the Jazz

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Clippers shoot 69.4% at the rim (3rd), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.