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Game plans

Tuesday, November 10

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Mavericks at Spurs

How the Mavericks beat the Spurs

  1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
  3. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Run and make them keep up.

How the Spurs beat the Mavericks

  1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Spurs shoot 43.6% from midrange (7th), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the paintThe Spurs shoot 45.7% in the paint (10th), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).
  4. TempoSlow it downThe Spurs play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneDAL offenseSAS defenseSAS offenseDAL defense
At the rim64.6% (24th)62.7% (5th)67.1% (12th)66.2% (16th)
Paint45.4% (11th)42.5% (7th)45.7% (10th)45.5% (24th)
Midrange39.4% (24th)42.5% (22nd)43.6% (7th)42.7% (23rd)
Corner 337.1% (25th)34.6% (1st)38.9% (12th)37.2% (6th)
Above-the-break 333.2% (28th)35.4% (19th)34.4% (20th)34.2% (9th)

02Matchups on Tue, Nov 10

6 games
  • Bucks at Knicks7:30 PM ET

    How the Bucks beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Bucks defense there ranks 29th (41.1% allowed).

    How the Knicks beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most), and the Bucks allow 41.1% there (29th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at 76ers8:00 PM ET

    How the Celtics beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the 76ers beat the Celtics

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The 76ers defense there ranks 3rd (33.8% allowed).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at Suns9:00 PM ET

    How the Clippers beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Clippers shoot 69.4% at the rim (3rd), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    How the Suns beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.9% of Suns shots come from above the break (4th most), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at Jazz9:00 PM ET

    How the Heat beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at Kings10:00 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Magic defense there ranks 23rd (45.3% allowed).

    How the Kings beat the Magic

    1. AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at Trail Blazers11:00 PM ET

    How the Thunder beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd), and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Thunder

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd) and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.