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Game plans

Wednesday, March 18

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Cavaliers at Grizzlies

How the Cavaliers beat the Grizzlies

  1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 13th (44.0% allowed).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Ty JeromeJerome (19.7 points per game): best in the paint (53% on 64 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%). 40% on the left side, 47% on the right; push him left.
  4. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Grizzlies allow 44.9% there (21st of 30).

How the Grizzlies beat the Cavaliers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
  2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.0% of Grizzlies shots come from above the break (8th most), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneCLE offenseMEM defenseMEM offenseCLE defense
At the rim67.2% (11th)68.4% (24th)64.1% (25th)62.6% (4th)
Paint47.8% (4th)44.9% (21st)45.9% (8th)44.0% (13th)
Midrange44.5% (4th)43.1% (24th)40.3% (19th)42.4% (20th)
Corner 337.6% (18th)39.6% (23rd)36.5% (27th)40.1% (25th)
Above-the-break 335.4% (11th)35.2% (18th)34.8% (18th)36.1% (25th)

02Matchups on Wed, Mar 18

9 games
  • Warriors at CelticsFinal

    How the Warriors beat the Celtics

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Warriors defense there ranks 13th (34.4% allowed).

    How the Celtics beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Celtics shoot 48.2% in the paint (3rd), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Celtics shoot 41.8% from the corners (4th), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at NetsFinal

    How the Thunder beat the Nets

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd), and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Thunder shoot 35.9% from above the break (8th), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    How the Nets beat the Thunder

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at PacersFinal

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Pacers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 312.2% of Trail Blazers shots come from the corners (5th most), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Pacers beat the Trail Blazers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at BullsFinal

    How the Raptors beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Raptors play at 97.5 possessions per 48 minutes (22nd in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Bulls beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Raptors at 97.5 (22nd). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Jazz at TimberwolvesFinal

    How the Jazz beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 311.9% of Jazz shots come from the corners (7th most), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Timberwolves shoot 36.5% from above the break (3rd), and the Jazz allow 36.4% there (27th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at PelicansFinal

    How the Clippers beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Clippers shots come in the paint (6th most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).

    How the Pelicans beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Pelicans play at 99.5 possessions per 48 minutes (11th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at GrizzliesFinal

    How the Nuggets beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hawks at MavericksFinal

    How the Hawks beat the Mavericks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    How the Mavericks beat the Hawks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at RocketsFinal

    How the Lakers beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Lakers defense there ranks 9th (43.0% allowed).

    How the Rockets beat the Lakers

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.8% of Rockets shots come from midrange (2nd most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.