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Game plans · Tuesday, December 22

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Celtics at Mavericks

How the Celtics beat the Mavericks

  1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
  2. AttackAttack the paintThe Celtics shoot 48.2% in the paint (3rd), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
  3. AttackAttack midrange11.6% of Celtics shots come from midrange (8th most), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

How the Mavericks beat the Celtics

  1. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
  2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Mavericks defense there ranks 9th (34.2% allowed).
  3. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneBOS offenseDAL defenseDAL offenseBOS defense
At the rim70.5% (2nd)66.2% (16th)64.6% (24th)64.8% (7th)
Paint48.2% (3rd)45.5% (24th)45.4% (11th)41.4% (4th)
Midrange39.9% (21st)42.7% (23rd)39.4% (24th)42.5% (21st)
Corner 341.8% (4th)37.2% (6th)37.1% (25th)36.2% (2nd)
Above-the-break 335.6% (10th)34.2% (9th)33.2% (28th)35.7% (24th)

Matchups on Tue, Dec 22

3 games
  • Raptors at Wizards7:00 PM ET

    How the Raptors beat the Wizards

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th), and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).

    How the Wizards beat the Raptors

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at Thunder8:00 PM ET

    How the Pistons beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).

    How the Thunder beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at Warriors10:30 PM ET

    How the Mavericks beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    How the Warriors beat the Mavericks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Warriors play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.