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Game plans

Tuesday, March 31

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Celtics at Heat

How the Celtics beat the Heat

  1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).

How the Heat beat the Celtics

  1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
  2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Heat defense there ranks 16th (34.7% allowed).
  3. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Heat shoot 35.6% from above the break (9th), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneBOS offenseMIA defenseMIA offenseBOS defense
At the rim70.5% (2nd)65.3% (11th)65.1% (20th)64.8% (7th)
Paint48.2% (3rd)44.8% (20th)44.2% (17th)41.4% (4th)
Midrange39.9% (21st)39.5% (4th)37.8% (26th)42.5% (21st)
Corner 341.8% (4th)39.0% (18th)37.6% (19th)36.2% (2nd)
Above-the-break 335.6% (10th)34.7% (16th)35.6% (9th)35.7% (24th)

02Matchups on Tue, Mar 31

7 games
  • Suns at MagicFinal

    How the Suns beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Suns play at 96.3 possessions per 48 minutes (24th in pace), the Magic at 99.3 (12th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Magic beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Magic play at 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes (12th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at NetsFinal

    How the Hornets beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Hornets shoot 42.8% from the corners (3rd), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    How the Nets beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Nets defense there ranks 28th (36.4% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon MillerMiller (20.2 points per game): best from the corners (42% on 71 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (37%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at BucksFinal

    How the Mavericks beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Mavericks defense there ranks 6th (37.2% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Bucks play at 96.8 possessions per 48 minutes (23rd in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at PistonsFinal

    How the Raptors beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    How the Pistons beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Pistons defense there ranks 2nd (61.9% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Knicks at RocketsFinal

    How the Knicks beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Knicks defense there ranks 17th (44.2% allowed).

    How the Rockets beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Rockets defense there ranks 12th (38.5% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at LakersFinal

    How the Cavaliers beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).

    How the Lakers beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Lakers shoot 36.3% from above the break (6th), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at ClippersFinal

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.6% of Trail Blazers shots come from above the break (5th most), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Clippers beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.