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Game plans · Friday, January 16

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Celtics at Bulls

How the Celtics beat the Bulls

  1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.
  2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
  3. AttackAttack midrange11.6% of Celtics shots come from midrange (8th most), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

How the Bulls beat the Celtics

  1. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
  2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Bulls defense there ranks 29th (36.6% allowed).
  3. AttackAttack the above-the-break 332.3% of Bulls shots come from above the break (9th most), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneBOS offenseCHI defenseCHI offenseBOS defense
At the rim70.5% (2nd)65.0% (8th)62.7% (30th)64.8% (7th)
Paint48.2% (3rd)42.4% (6th)44.0% (18th)41.4% (4th)
Midrange39.9% (21st)43.1% (25th)41.0% (18th)42.5% (21st)
Corner 341.8% (4th)37.4% (7th)37.3% (22nd)36.2% (2nd)
Above-the-break 335.6% (10th)36.6% (29th)34.9% (17th)35.7% (24th)

Matchups on Fri, Jan 16

6 games
  • Pelicans at PacersFinal

    How the Pelicans beat the Pacers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Pelicans shoot 39.2% from the corners (9th), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Pacers beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at 76ersFinal

    How the Cavaliers beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at NetsFinal

    How the Bulls beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Nets at 96.2 (25th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Nets beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.9% of Nets shots come from above the break (6th most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at RaptorsFinal

    How the Clippers beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Clippers defense there ranks 20th (67.2% allowed).

    How the Raptors beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at RocketsFinal

    How the Timberwolves beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 8th (42.9% allowed).

    How the Rockets beat the Timberwolves

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Timberwolves at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at KingsFinal

    How the Wizards beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Wizards defense there ranks 2nd (40.6% allowed).

    How the Kings beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Kings shoot 68.2% at the rim (6th), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Kings defense there ranks 27th (43.7% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.