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Game plans · Tuesday, January 12

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Nets at Bucks

How the Nets beat the Bucks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Nets defense there ranks 30th (42.3% allowed).
  3. AttackAttack the corner 311.5% of Nets shots come from the corners (9th most), and the Bucks allow 41.1% there (29th of 30).
  4. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.9% of Nets shots come from above the break (6th most), and the Bucks allow 36.4% there (26th of 30).
  5. AttackAttack the rim30.7% of Nets shots come at the rim (10th most), and the Bucks allow 68.5% there (25th of 30).

How the Bucks beat the Nets

  1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneBKN offenseMIL defenseMIL offenseBKN defense
At the rim63.4% (27th)68.5% (25th)68.7% (5th)67.0% (19th)
Paint40.1% (27th)41.1% (3rd)42.7% (23rd)46.6% (25th)
Midrange36.8% (28th)42.0% (15th)42.3% (12th)41.2% (13th)
Corner 336.8% (26th)41.1% (29th)42.9% (2nd)42.3% (30th)
Above-the-break 333.2% (27th)36.4% (26th)36.9% (2nd)36.4% (28th)

Matchups on Tue, Jan 12

8 games
  • Nets at Heat7:30 PM ET

    How the Nets beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Heat beat the Nets

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Nets at 96.2 (25th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at Raptors7:30 PM ET

    How the Pistons beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Pistons defense there ranks 2nd (61.9% allowed).

    How the Raptors beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at 76ers8:00 PM ET

    How the Wizards beat the 76ers

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe 76ers force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the rim33.4% of 76ers shots come at the rim (5th most), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The 76ers defense there ranks 11th (40.7% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at Grizzlies8:00 PM ET

    How the Mavericks beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Mavericks defense there ranks 24th (45.5% allowed).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at Bucks8:00 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Bucks

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Bucks allow 41.1% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).

    How the Bucks beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Bucks shoot 68.7% at the rim (5th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at Jazz9:00 PM ET

    How the Bulls beat the Jazz

    1. AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).

    How the Jazz beat the Bulls

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at Trail Blazers10:00 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Trail Blazers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim33.5% of Trail Blazers shots come at the rim (4th most), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at Warriors11:00 PM ET

    How the Kings beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).

    How the Warriors beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.