Last season (2025-26)

What changed?

Players whose game really moved: more minutes, a bigger role, a new shot diet. Each change comes with the likely reason and how much of it should hold.

StatTeam

The 2026-27 season does not have enough games yet, so this shows 2025-26: each player's last 25 games (or his games since a role change or a trade) against the rest of his season. Once players have about 20 games this season, the page switches to this season by itself.

Biggest real changes

279 of 393 players flagged

Showing 37 changes, biggest first (size after the "is it real?" pull). Clear filters

Cody WilliamsF · UTAProbably real

Minutes+15.0

19 games since Mar 5 vs the 48 games before

Before20.1

After35.1

Williams's playing time is up 15.0 minutes a game over his 19 games since Mar 5 (35.1 vs 20.1). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Lauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

Teammate outLauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out (about 100% of the change)
Starting roleHe started 19 of 19 games, up from 22 of 48 (about 59% of the change)

Form Shots

Cody WilliamsF · UTAProbably real

Points+10.6

19 games since Mar 5 vs the 48 games before

Before5.8

After16.4

Williams's scoring is up 10.6 points a game over his 19 games since Mar 5 (16.4 vs 5.8). Much of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 10.1 to 15.8, with Lauri Markkanen out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 10.1 to 15.8 (about 55% of the change)
Teammate outLauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out
MinutesHis minutes went from 20.1 to 35.1 a game (about 41% of the change)

Form Shots

Brice SensabaughF · UTAProbably real

Points+9.4

44 games since Jan 1 vs the 30 games before

Before9.5

After18.9

Sensabaugh's scoring is up 9.4 points a game over his 44 games since Jan 1 (18.9 vs 9.5). The likely reason: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 50 games, plus 3 more key players out. Also playing time: his minutes went from 19.0 to 27.1 a game. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 50 games, plus 3 more key players out
MinutesHis minutes went from 19.0 to 27.1 a game (about 44% of the change)
Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 16.2 to 20.8 (about 42% of the change)

Form Shots

John KoncharG-F · UTAProbably real

Minutes+11.6

26 games with UTA vs the 30 games before

Before14.6

After26.2

Konchar's playing time is up 11.6 minutes a game over his 26 games with UTA (26.2 vs 14.6). The likely reason: he moved from MEM to UTA (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 75% should hold.

New teamHe moved from MEM to UTA (first game Feb 7)

Form Shots

Cody WilliamsF · UTAProbably real

Midrange share+19 pts

19 games since Mar 5 vs the 48 games before

Before4%

After22%

Williams's midrange share is up 19 points over his 19 games since Mar 5 (22% vs 4%). The likely reason: Lauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out. Also the starting role change: he started 19 of 19 games, up from 22 of 48. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

Teammate outLauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out
Starting roleHe started 19 of 19 games, up from 22 of 48
New teammateBez Mbeng joined the rotation on Mar 13 and played 32.9 MPG

Form Shots

Airious BaileyF · UTAProbably real

Points+7.2

39 games since Jan 15 vs the 33 games before

Before9.9

After17.1

Bailey's scoring is up 7.2 points a game over his 39 games since Jan 15 (17.1 vs 9.9). The likely reason: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 42 games, plus 3 more key players out. Also shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 14.6 to 18.4. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 42 games, plus 3 more key players out
Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 14.6 to 18.4 (about 48% of the change)
MinutesHis minutes went from 23.3 to 31.1 a game (about 47% of the change)

Form Shots

Isaiah CollierG · UTAProbably real

Points+7.4

24 games since Jan 20 vs the 35 games before

Before8.7

After16.0

Collier's scoring is up 7.4 points a game over his 24 games since Jan 20 (16.0 vs 8.7). Most of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 11.7 to 17.5, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 11.7 to 17.5 (about 74% of the change)
Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 26 games, plus 3 more key players out
MinutesHis minutes went from 23.2 to 29.5 a game (about 32% of the change)

Form Shots

Brice SensabaughF · UTAProbably real

Minutes+8.1

44 games since Jan 1 vs the 30 games before

Before19.0

After27.1

Sensabaugh's playing time is up 8.1 minutes a game over his 44 games since Jan 1 (27.1 vs 19.0). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 50 games, plus 3 more key players out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 50 games, plus 3 more key players out (about 100% of the change)

Form Shots

Airious BaileyF · UTAProbably real

Minutes+7.9

39 games since Jan 15 vs the 33 games before

Before23.3

After31.1

Bailey's playing time is up 7.9 minutes a game over his 39 games since Jan 15 (31.1 vs 23.3). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 42 games, plus 3 more key players out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 42 games, plus 3 more key players out (about 100% of the change)

Form Shots

Brice SensabaughF · UTAProbably real

3-point rate-13 pts

44 games since Jan 1 vs the 30 games before

Before61%

After48%

Sensabaugh's 3-point rate is down 13 points over his 44 games since Jan 1 (48% vs 61%). The likely reason: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 50 games, plus 3 more key players out. Also a new teammate: John Konchar joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 26.2 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 50 games, plus 3 more key players out
New teammateJohn Konchar joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 26.2 MPG

Form Shots

Cody WilliamsF · UTAProbably real

Usage+7.4 pts

19 games since Mar 5 vs the 48 games before

Before13.0%

After20.4%

Williams's usage is up 7.4 points over his 19 games since Mar 5 (20.4% vs 13.0%). The likely reason: Lauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out. Also the starting role change: he started 19 of 19 games, up from 22 of 48. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

Teammate outLauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out
Starting roleHe started 19 of 19 games, up from 22 of 48

Form Shots

Brice SensabaughF · UTAProbably real

Usage+6.7 pts

44 games since Jan 1 vs the 30 games before

Before20.6%

After27.3%

Sensabaugh's usage is up 6.7 points over his 44 games since Jan 1 (27.3% vs 20.6%). The likely reason: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 50 games, plus 3 more key players out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 50 games, plus 3 more key players out

Form Shots

Kyle FilipowskiC · UTAProbably real

Points+5.6

28 games since Feb 3 vs the 49 games before

Before9.4

After15.0

Filipowski's scoring is up 5.6 points a game over his 28 games since Feb 3 (15.0 vs 9.4). Much of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 13.5 to 17.2, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 13.5 to 17.2 (about 54% of the change)
Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, plus 3 more key players out
Starting roleHe started 25 of 28 games, up from 16 of 49 (about 31% of the change)

Form Shots

Isaiah CollierG · UTAProbably real

Usage+6.8 pts

24 games since Jan 20 vs the 35 games before

Before17.5%

After24.2%

Collier's usage is up 6.8 points over his 24 games since Jan 20 (24.2% vs 17.5%). The likely reason: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 26 games, plus 3 more key players out. Also the starting role change: he started 14 of 24 games, up from 5 of 35. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 26 games, plus 3 more key players out
Starting roleHe started 14 of 24 games, up from 5 of 35

Form Shots

Cody WilliamsF · UTAPartly real

Assists+3.7

19 games since Mar 5 vs the 48 games before

Before1.0

After4.7

Williams's assists are up 3.7 assists a game over his 19 games since Mar 5 (4.7 vs 1.0). Most of it is per-minute production: his assists per 36 minutes went from 1.8 to 4.8, with Lauri Markkanen out. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

Per-minute rateHis assists per 36 minutes went from 1.8 to 4.8 (about 80% of the change)
Teammate outLauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out
Starting roleHe started 19 of 19 games, up from 22 of 48

Form Shots

Jusuf NurkicC · UTAProbably real

Points+6.2

16 games since Dec 22 vs the 25 games before

Before8.5

After14.7

Nurkic's scoring is up 6.2 points a game over his 16 games since Dec 22 (14.7 vs 8.5). Much of it is shooting efficiency: his TS% went from 49.8% to 60.4%, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

EfficiencyHis TS% went from 49.8% to 60.4% (about 42% of the change)
Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 28 games
MinutesHis minutes went from 24.4 to 29.7 a game (about 30% of the change)

Form Shots

Keyonte GeorgeG · UTAPartly real

Minutes-9.4

8 games since Jan 30 vs the 46 games before

Before34.5

After25.1

George's playing time is down 9.4 minutes a game over his 8 games since Jan 30 (25.1 vs 34.5). The likely reason: John Konchar joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 24.0 MPG. Partly real: about half should hold.

New teammateJohn Konchar joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 24.0 MPG

Form Shots

Cody WilliamsF · UTAPartly real

Corner-3 share-13 pts

19 games since Mar 5 vs the 48 games before

Before23%

After10%

Williams's corner-3 share is down 13 points over his 19 games since Mar 5 (10% vs 23%). The likely reason: Lauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out. Also the starting role change: he started 19 of 19 games, up from 22 of 48. Partly real: about 60% should hold.

Teammate outLauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out
Starting roleHe started 19 of 19 games, up from 22 of 48
New teammateBez Mbeng joined the rotation on Mar 13 and played 32.9 MPG

Form Shots

Isaiah CollierG · UTAProbably real

Minutes+6.3

24 games since Jan 20 vs the 35 games before

Before23.2

After29.5

Collier's playing time is up 6.3 minutes a game over his 24 games since Jan 20 (29.5 vs 23.2). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 26 games, plus 3 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 26 games, plus 3 more key players out (about 100% of the change)
Starting roleHe started 14 of 24 games, up from 5 of 35 (about 51% of the change)

Form Shots

John KoncharG-F · UTAPartly real

Corner-3 share-13 pts

26 games with UTA vs the 30 games before

Before32%

After20%

Konchar's corner-3 share is down 13 points over his 26 games with UTA (20% vs 32%). The likely reason: he moved from MEM to UTA (first game Feb 7). Partly real: about 55% should hold.

New teamHe moved from MEM to UTA (first game Feb 7)

Form Shots

Jaren Jackson Jr.F-C · UTAProbably real

Points+5.0

Last 25 games of the season vs the 23 games before

Before16.8

After21.8

Jackson Jr.'s scoring is up 5.0 points a game over his last 25 games of the season (21.8 vs 16.8). Much of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 18.5 to 21.3, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 18.5 to 21.3 (about 54% of the change)
Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 31 games
MinutesHis minutes went from 29.3 to 31.3 a game (about 23% of the change)

Form Shots

Kyle FilipowskiC · UTAProbably real

Usage+5.3 pts

28 games since Feb 3 vs the 49 games before

Before18.0%

After23.2%

Filipowski's usage is up 5.3 points over his 28 games since Feb 3 (23.2% vs 18.0%). The likely reason: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, plus 3 more key players out. Also the starting role change: he started 25 of 28 games, up from 16 of 49. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, plus 3 more key players out
Starting roleHe started 25 of 28 games, up from 16 of 49

Form Shots

Cody WilliamsF · UTAProbably real

3-point rate-10 pts

19 games since Mar 5 vs the 48 games before

Before31%

After21%

Williams's 3-point rate is down 10 points over his 19 games since Mar 5 (21% vs 31%). The likely reason: Lauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out. Also the starting role change: he started 19 of 19 games, up from 22 of 48. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

Teammate outLauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out
Starting roleHe started 19 of 19 games, up from 22 of 48
New teammateBez Mbeng joined the rotation on Mar 13 and played 32.9 MPG

Form Shots

Lauri MarkkanenF · UTAPartly real

Minutes-7.6

9 games since Jan 27 vs the 33 games before

Before36.0

After28.4

Markkanen's playing time is down 7.6 minutes a game over his 9 games since Jan 27 (28.4 vs 36.0). The likely reason: John Konchar joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 22.2 MPG. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

New teammateJohn Konchar joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 22.2 MPG

Form Shots

Airious BaileyF · UTAProbably real

Usage+4.8 pts

39 games since Jan 15 vs the 33 games before

Before18.6%

After23.4%

Bailey's usage is up 4.8 points over his 39 games since Jan 15 (23.4% vs 18.6%). The likely reason: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 42 games, plus 3 more key players out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 42 games, plus 3 more key players out

Form Shots

Lauri MarkkanenF · UTAPartly real

Points-5.6

9 games since Jan 27 vs the 33 games before

Before27.9

After22.3

Markkanen's scoring is down 5.6 points a game over his 9 games since Jan 27 (22.3 vs 27.9). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 36.0 to 28.4 a game, after John Konchar joined the rotation. Also shooting efficiency: his TS% went from 61.6% to 57.6%. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

MinutesHis minutes went from 36.0 to 28.4 a game (about 100% of the change)
EfficiencyHis TS% went from 61.6% to 57.6% (about 27% of the change)
New teammateJohn Konchar joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 22.2 MPG

Form Shots

Jusuf NurkicC · UTAProbably real

Minutes+5.3

16 games since Dec 22 vs the 25 games before

Before24.4

After29.7

Nurkic's playing time is up 5.3 minutes a game over his 16 games since Dec 22 (29.7 vs 24.4). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 28 games. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 28 games (about 100% of the change)

Form Shots

Cody WilliamsF · UTAProbably real

Rim share-9 pts

19 games since Mar 5 vs the 48 games before

Before42%

After32%

Williams's rim share is down 9 points over his 19 games since Mar 5 (32% vs 42%). The likely reason: Lauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out. Also the starting role change: he started 19 of 19 games, up from 22 of 48. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

Teammate outLauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out
Starting roleHe started 19 of 19 games, up from 22 of 48
New teammateBez Mbeng joined the rotation on Mar 13 and played 32.9 MPG

Form Shots

John KoncharG-F · UTAProbably real

3-point rate-8 pts

26 games with UTA vs the 30 games before

Before55%

After47%

Konchar's 3-point rate is down 8 points over his 26 games with UTA (47% vs 55%). The likely reason: he moved from MEM to UTA (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 65% should hold.

New teamHe moved from MEM to UTA (first game Feb 7)

Form Shots

Brice SensabaughF · UTAProbably real

TS%+4.5 pts

44 games since Jan 1 vs the 30 games before

Before55.8%

After60.2%

Sensabaugh's TS% is up 4.5 points over his 44 games since Jan 1 (60.2% vs 55.8%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 4.0 points above what his shot spots predict (1.7 points below before), with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

Shot-makingHis TS% was 4.0 points above what his shot spots predict (1.7 points below before) (about 100% of the change)
Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 50 games, plus 3 more key players out
New teammateJohn Konchar joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 26.2 MPG

Form Shots

Brice SensabaughF · UTAProbably real

Corner-3 share-9 pts

44 games since Jan 1 vs the 30 games before

Before20%

After11%

Sensabaugh's corner-3 share is down 9 points over his 44 games since Jan 1 (11% vs 20%). The likely reason: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 50 games, plus 3 more key players out. Also a new teammate: John Konchar joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 26.2 MPG. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 50 games, plus 3 more key players out
New teammateJohn Konchar joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 26.2 MPG

Form Shots

Kyle FilipowskiC · UTAProbably real

Rebounds+2.5

28 games since Feb 3 vs the 49 games before

Before6.2

After8.8

Filipowski's rebounding is up 2.5 rebounds a game over his 28 games since Feb 3 (8.8 vs 6.2). Much of it is per-minute production: his rebounds per 36 minutes went from 10.2 to 12.3, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

Per-minute rateHis rebounds per 36 minutes went from 10.2 to 12.3 (about 59% of the change)
Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, plus 3 more key players out
MinutesHis minutes went from 22.1 to 25.8 a game (about 41% of the change)

Form Shots

Svi MykhailiukG · UTAPartly real

Points+5.1

8 games since Feb 3 vs the 42 games before

Before8.6

After13.6

Mykhailiuk's scoring is up 5.1 points a game over his 8 games since Feb 3 (13.6 vs 8.6). Most of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 10.7 to 18.5, with Walker Kessler out. Partly real: about half should hold.

Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 10.7 to 18.5 (about 93% of the change)
Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 29 games, plus 3 more key players out
EfficiencyHis TS% went from 60.0% to 73.3% (about 49% of the change)

Form Shots

Kyle FilipowskiC · UTAProbably real

TS%+4.1 pts

28 games since Feb 3 vs the 49 games before

Before56.7%

After60.8%

Filipowski's TS% is up 4.1 points over his 28 games since Feb 3 (60.8% vs 56.7%). Most of it is shot diet: his above-the-break 3 share of shots went from 16% to 24%, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

Shot dietHis above-the-break 3 share of shots went from 16% to 24% (about 68% of the change)
Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, plus 3 more key players out
Shot-makingHis TS% was 0.3 points below what his shot spots predict (1.6 points below before) (about 32% of the change)

Form Shots

John KoncharG-F · UTAProbably real

Rebounds+2.6

26 games with UTA vs the 30 games before

Before3.1

After5.7

Konchar's rebounding is up 2.6 rebounds a game over his 26 games with UTA (5.7 vs 3.1). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 14.6 to 26.2 a game, after his move to UTA. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

MinutesHis minutes went from 14.6 to 26.2 a game (about 93% of the change)
New teamHe moved from MEM to UTA (first game Feb 7)

Form Shots

Svi MykhailiukG · UTAPartly real

Minutes-5.9

8 games since Feb 3 vs the 42 games before

Before24.0

After18.1

Mykhailiuk's playing time is down 5.9 minutes a game over his 8 games since Feb 3 (18.1 vs 24.0). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 0 of 8 games, down from 41 of 42, after John Konchar joined the rotation. Partly real: about half should hold.

Starting roleHe started 0 of 8 games, down from 41 of 42 (about 74% of the change)
New teammateJohn Konchar joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 25.2 MPG

Form Shots

Vince Williams Jr.G · UTAPartly real

Minutes-5.5

8 games since Jan 31 vs the 32 games before

Before21.6

After16.1

Williams Jr.'s playing time is down 5.5 minutes a game over his 8 games since Jan 31 (16.1 vs 21.6). The likely reason: John Konchar joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 22.2 MPG. Partly real: about half should hold.

New teammateJohn Konchar joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 22.2 MPG

Form Shots

How this works

Windows

Every night we split each player's regular season (8+ games on each side) in one of three ways, in this order: the day he joined a new team; the game after which his minutes and usage shifted the most (a simple two-part split); or, if neither moved much, his last 10 games. Until the new season has enough games (about 20 each for most players) we use last season and its last 25 games, which catches the roles that changed at the trade deadline.

Is it big?

A change counts as big when it reaches:

Points: 4 points a game
Minutes: 5 minutes a game
Usage: 4 points
TS%: 4 points
3P%: 5 points
3-point rate: 8 points
Rim share: 8 points
Midrange share: 8 points
Corner-3 share: 8 points
Above-the-break 3 share: 8 points
Assists: 2 assists a game
Rebounds: 2.5 rebounds a game

Players need 15+ minutes a game on one side. Shooting needs 40+ threes or 60+ shots on each side.

Is it real?

Both windows are pulled toward the player's whole season by a fixed amount of weight M, the sample size where a stat is half skill and half luck: (window x n + season x M) / (n + M). A change is shown only if the pulled gap keeps at least half of the raw gap: Probably real keeps 60% or more, Partly real keeps 50 to 59%, anything less is Mostly noise and stays off the feed.

M values: 3P% 501 threes, TS% 218 shots and points 9.7 games, from Is it real?; minutes 9.4, usage 17, assists 18.9, rebounds 18.1, 3-point rate 13.9, rim share 18.2, midrange 16.8, corner 3 21.6 and above the break 15.4 games, measured on 1,766 pairs of back-to-back 10-game stretches in 2025-26. That is why 3P% changes almost never make it: threes are mostly luck until a player has taken hundreds.

Causes

Rules, each with a number. Points split exactly into minutes, shot volume and efficiency. Assists and rebounds split into minutes and per-minute rate. TS% and 3P% split into shot diet (league FG% from the spots he shot from) and shot-making (the rest). Context: a new team, a move into or out of the starting five (starting lineups from our stint data), key teammates (25+ minutes before) who missed most of the window, a new rotation player (20+ minutes), and opponents' defensive rating. We keep causes that explain 15%+ of the change and show the top three.

What we measured

Backtest on 2025-26: we ran this as if the season stopped on 3 dates and checked each flag against the rest of the season. Probably real changes kept 71% of their size on average (we predicted 66%) and 88% kept going the same way (301 flags). Partly real kept 60% (predicted 55%). Mostly noise kept 39% (predicted 33%), so the pull is a little cautious, which is the safe side.

Latest run: 393 players checked, 447 probably real and 180 partly real changes, and 273 big swings left out as mostly noise.

What it cannot see

Injuries a player played through, coaching decisions, matchups and schemes, and anything off the box score. Missing teammates are read from who played, not the injury report. Causes are rough splits, not proof; when nothing in our data fits we say so.