Players whose game really moved: more minutes, a bigger role, a new shot diet. Each change comes with the likely reason and how much of it should hold.
The 2026-27 season does not have enough games yet, so this shows 2025-26: each player's last 25 games (or his games since a role change or a trade) against the rest of his season. Once players have about 20 games this season, the page switches to this season by itself.
Biggest real changes
279 of 393 players flagged
Showing 7 changes, biggest first (size after the "is it real?" pull). Clear filters
Filipowski's scoring is up 5.6 points a game over his 28 games since Feb 3 (15.0 vs 9.4). Much of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 13.5 to 17.2, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 13.5 to 17.2 (about 54% of the change)
Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, plus 3 more key players out
Starting roleHe started 25 of 28 games, up from 16 of 49 (about 31% of the change)
Nurkic's scoring is up 6.2 points a game over his 16 games since Dec 22 (14.7 vs 8.5). Much of it is shooting efficiency: his TS% went from 49.8% to 60.4%, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
EfficiencyHis TS% went from 49.8% to 60.4% (about 42% of the change)
Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 28 games
MinutesHis minutes went from 24.4 to 29.7 a game (about 30% of the change)
Last 25 games of the season vs the 23 games before
Before16.8
After21.8
Jackson Jr.'s scoring is up 5.0 points a game over his last 25 games of the season (21.8 vs 16.8). Much of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 18.5 to 21.3, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 18.5 to 21.3 (about 54% of the change)
Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 31 games
MinutesHis minutes went from 29.3 to 31.3 a game (about 23% of the change)
Filipowski's usage is up 5.3 points over his 28 games since Feb 3 (23.2% vs 18.0%). The likely reason: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, plus 3 more key players out. Also the starting role change: he started 25 of 28 games, up from 16 of 49. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, plus 3 more key players out
Starting roleHe started 25 of 28 games, up from 16 of 49
Nurkic's playing time is up 5.3 minutes a game over his 16 games since Dec 22 (29.7 vs 24.4). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 28 games. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 28 games (about 100% of the change)
Filipowski's rebounding is up 2.5 rebounds a game over his 28 games since Feb 3 (8.8 vs 6.2). Much of it is per-minute production: his rebounds per 36 minutes went from 10.2 to 12.3, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Per-minute rateHis rebounds per 36 minutes went from 10.2 to 12.3 (about 59% of the change)
Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, plus 3 more key players out
MinutesHis minutes went from 22.1 to 25.8 a game (about 41% of the change)
Filipowski's TS% is up 4.1 points over his 28 games since Feb 3 (60.8% vs 56.7%). Most of it is shot diet: his above-the-break 3 share of shots went from 16% to 24%, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Shot dietHis above-the-break 3 share of shots went from 16% to 24% (about 68% of the change)
Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, plus 3 more key players out
Shot-makingHis TS% was 0.3 points below what his shot spots predict (1.6 points below before) (about 32% of the change)
Every night we split each player's regular season (8+ games on each side) in one of three ways, in this order: the day he joined a new team; the game after which his minutes and usage shifted the most (a simple two-part split); or, if neither moved much, his last 10 games. Until the new season has enough games (about 20 each for most players) we use last season and its last 25 games, which catches the roles that changed at the trade deadline.
Is it big?
A change counts as big when it reaches:
Points: 4 points a game
Minutes: 5 minutes a game
Usage: 4 points
TS%: 4 points
3P%: 5 points
3-point rate: 8 points
Rim share: 8 points
Midrange share: 8 points
Corner-3 share: 8 points
Above-the-break 3 share: 8 points
Assists: 2 assists a game
Rebounds: 2.5 rebounds a game
Players need 15+ minutes a game on one side. Shooting needs 40+ threes or 60+ shots on each side.
Is it real?
Both windows are pulled toward the player's whole season by a fixed amount of weight M, the sample size where a stat is half skill and half luck: (window x n + season x M) / (n + M). A change is shown only if the pulled gap keeps at least half of the raw gap: Probably real keeps 60% or more, Partly real keeps 50 to 59%, anything less is Mostly noise and stays off the feed.
M values: 3P% 501 threes, TS% 218 shots and points 9.7 games, from Is it real?; minutes 9.4, usage 17, assists 18.9, rebounds 18.1, 3-point rate 13.9, rim share 18.2, midrange 16.8, corner 3 21.6 and above the break 15.4 games, measured on 1,766 pairs of back-to-back 10-game stretches in 2025-26. That is why 3P% changes almost never make it: threes are mostly luck until a player has taken hundreds.
Causes
Rules, each with a number. Points split exactly into minutes, shot volume and efficiency. Assists and rebounds split into minutes and per-minute rate. TS% and 3P% split into shot diet (league FG% from the spots he shot from) and shot-making (the rest). Context: a new team, a move into or out of the starting five (starting lineups from our stint data), key teammates (25+ minutes before) who missed most of the window, a new rotation player (20+ minutes), and opponents' defensive rating. We keep causes that explain 15%+ of the change and show the top three.
What we measured
Backtest on 2025-26: we ran this as if the season stopped on 3 dates and checked each flag against the rest of the season. Probably real changes kept 71% of their size on average (we predicted 66%) and 88% kept going the same way (301 flags). Partly real kept 60% (predicted 55%). Mostly noise kept 39% (predicted 33%), so the pull is a little cautious, which is the safe side.
Latest run: 393 players checked, 447 probably real and 180 partly real changes, and 273 big swings left out as mostly noise.
What it cannot see
Injuries a player played through, coaching decisions, matchups and schemes, and anything off the box score. Missing teammates are read from who played, not the injury report. Causes are rough splits, not proof; when nothing in our data fits we say so.
