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Last season (2025-26)

What changed?

Players whose game really moved: more minutes, a bigger role, a new shot diet. Each change comes with the likely reason and how much of it should hold.

The 2026-27 season does not have enough games yet, so this shows 2025-26: each player's last 25 games (or his games since a role change or a trade) against the rest of his season. Once players have about 20 games this season, the page switches to this season by itself.

Biggest real changes

279 of 393 players flagged

Showing 36 changes, biggest first (size after the "is it real?" pull). Clear filters

Brook LopezC · LACProbably real
3-point rate-25 pts

33 games since Feb 4 vs the 42 games before

Lopez's 3-point rate is down 25 points over his 33 games since Feb 4 (47% vs 72%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

  • Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
  • Starting roleHe started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42
  • New teammateBennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG

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Brook LopezC · LACProbably real
Above-the-break 3 share-19 pts

33 games since Feb 4 vs the 42 games before

Lopez's above-the-break 3 share is down 19 points over his 33 games since Feb 4 (41% vs 60%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
  • Starting roleHe started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42
  • New teammateBennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG

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Naz ReidF-C · MINProbably real
TS%-10.2 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 52 games before

Reid's TS% is down 10.2 points over his last 25 games of the season (49.5% vs 59.7%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 6.1 points below what his shot spots predict (4.3 points above before), after Ayo Dosunmu joined the rotation. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

  • Shot-makingHis TS% was 6.1 points below what his shot spots predict (4.3 points above before) (about 100% of the change)
  • New teammateAyo Dosunmu joined the rotation on Feb 8 and played 28.9 MPG

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Nikola VucevicC · BOSProbably real
Minutes-9.7

16 games with BOS vs the 48 games before

Vucevic's playing time is down 9.7 minutes a game over his 16 games with BOS (21.2 vs 30.9). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 1 of 16 games, down from 48 of 48, after his move to BOS. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Starting roleHe started 1 of 16 games, down from 48 of 48 (about 96% of the change)
  • New teamHe moved from CHI to BOS (first game Feb 6)

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Nikola VucevicC · BOSProbably real
Points-7.2

16 games with BOS vs the 48 games before

Vucevic's scoring is down 7.2 points a game over his 16 games with BOS (9.7 vs 16.9). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 30.9 to 21.2 a game, after he moved to the bench. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • MinutesHis minutes went from 30.9 to 21.2 a game (about 74% of the change)
  • Starting roleHe started 1 of 16 games, down from 48 of 48 (about 71% of the change)
  • New teamHe moved from CHI to BOS (first game Feb 6)

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Naz ReidF-C · MINProbably real
3-point rate-13 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 52 games before

Reid's 3-point rate is down 13 points over his last 25 games of the season (43% vs 55%). The likely reason: Ayo Dosunmu joined the rotation on Feb 8 and played 28.9 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • New teammateAyo Dosunmu joined the rotation on Feb 8 and played 28.9 MPG

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Karlo MatkovicF-C · NOPProbably real
Rim share-14 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 37 games before

Matkovic's rim share is down 14 points over his last 25 games of the season (44% vs 58%). The likely reason: Dejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG. Also a teammate's absence: Jordan Poole (25 MPG before) played only 9 of 26 games. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

  • New teammateDejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG
  • Teammate outJordan Poole (25 MPG before) played only 9 of 26 games

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Luke KornetF-C · SASProbably real
Minutes-6.9

31 games since Jan 28 vs the 37 games before

Kornet's playing time is down 6.9 minutes a game over his 31 games since Jan 28 (17.3 vs 24.2). Much of it is the starting role change: he started 3 of 31 games, down from 22 of 37. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

  • Starting roleHe started 3 of 31 games, down from 22 of 37 (about 55% of the change)

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Nikola JokicC · DENProbably real
TS%-5.5 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 40 games before

Jokic's TS% is down 5.5 points over his last 25 games of the season (63.6% vs 69.1%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 5.2 points above what his shot spots predict (8.8 points above before), with Peyton Watson out. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

  • Shot-makingHis TS% was 5.2 points above what his shot spots predict (8.8 points above before) (about 65% of the change)
  • Teammate outPeyton Watson (31 MPG before) played only 5 of 26 games, plus 1 more key player out
  • Shot dietHis short paint share of shots went from 31% to 37% (about 35% of the change)

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Ryan KalkbrennerC · CHAProbably real
Minutes-6.2

41 games since Jan 15 vs the 28 games before

Kalkbrenner's playing time is down 6.2 minutes a game over his 41 games since Jan 15 (19.0 vs 25.1). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 6 of 41 games, down from 25 of 28. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

  • Starting roleHe started 6 of 41 games, down from 25 of 28 (about 92% of the change)

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Al HorfordC-F · GSWProbably real
3-point rate-12 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 20 games before

Horford's 3-point rate is down 12 points over his last 25 games of the season (59% vs 71%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (32 MPG before) played only 4 of 43 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Kristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

  • Teammate outJimmy Butler (32 MPG before) played only 4 of 43 games, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateKristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG
  • Starting roleHe started 12 of 25 games, up from 1 of 20

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Kel'el WareC · MIAProbably real
Minutes-5.6

39 games since Jan 11 vs the 38 games before

Ware's playing time is down 5.6 minutes a game over his 39 games since Jan 11 (19.4 vs 25.0). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 7 of 39 games, down from 27 of 38. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

  • Starting roleHe started 7 of 39 games, down from 27 of 38 (about 78% of the change)

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Nicolas ClaxtonF-C · BKNProbably real
Minutes-7.2

12 games since Mar 9 vs the 57 games before

Claxton's playing time is down 7.2 minutes a game over his 12 games since Mar 9 (21.9 vs 29.1). The likely reason: Chaney Johnson joined the rotation on Mar 9 and played 20.1 MPG. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

  • New teammateChaney Johnson joined the rotation on Mar 9 and played 20.1 MPG

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Ivica ZubacC · INDProbably real
Minutes-6.1

21 games since Dec 20 vs the 27 games before

Zubac's playing time is down 6.1 minutes a game over his 21 games since Dec 20 (26.8 vs 32.9). The likely reason: Kobe Brown joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 24.2 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • New teammateKobe Brown joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 24.2 MPG

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Kel'el WareC · MIAProbably real
TS%-5.6 pts

39 games since Jan 11 vs the 38 games before

Ware's TS% is down 5.6 points over his 39 games since Jan 11 (58.7% vs 64.3%). Most of it is shot diet: his rim share of shots went from 54% to 45%, after he moved to the bench. Also shot-making: his TS% was 0.5 points above what his shot spots predict (2.2 points above before). Probably real: about 60% should hold.

  • Shot dietHis rim share of shots went from 54% to 45% (about 70% of the change)
  • Shot-makingHis TS% was 0.5 points above what his shot spots predict (2.2 points above before) (about 31% of the change)
  • Starting roleHe started 7 of 39 games, down from 27 of 38

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Isaiah HartensteinF-C · OKCProbably real
Minutes-6.0

25 games since Dec 25 vs the 22 games before

Hartenstein's playing time is down 6.0 minutes a game over his 25 games since Dec 25 (21.5 vs 27.5). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

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Evan MobleyF-C · CLEProbably real
Above-the-break 3 share-10 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 40 games before

Mobley's above-the-break 3 share is down 10 points over his last 25 games of the season (14% vs 24%). The likely reason: Darius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: James Harden joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 33.8 MPG. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • Teammate outDarius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateJames Harden joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 33.8 MPG

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Alexandre SarrC · WASPartly real
Points-6.0

9 games since Feb 5 vs the 39 games before

Sarr's scoring is down 6.0 points a game over his 9 games since Feb 5 (11.4 vs 17.4). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 28.5 to 21.4 a game, after Jaden Hardy joined the rotation. Also shooting efficiency: his TS% went from 55.7% to 46.9%. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

  • MinutesHis minutes went from 28.5 to 21.4 a game (about 72% of the change)
  • EfficiencyHis TS% went from 55.7% to 46.9% (about 36% of the change)
  • New teammateJaden Hardy joined the rotation on Feb 11 and played 20.6 MPG

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Mark WilliamsC · PHXPartly real
TS%-5.6 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 35 games before

Williams's TS% is down 5.6 points over his last 25 games of the season (64.6% vs 70.2%). Much of it is shot-making: his TS% was 1.5 points above what his shot spots predict (4.7 points above before). Also shot diet: his short paint share of shots went from 25% to 22%. Partly real: about 60% should hold.

  • Shot-makingHis TS% was 1.5 points above what his shot spots predict (4.7 points above before) (about 57% of the change)
  • Shot dietHis short paint share of shots went from 25% to 22% (about 43% of the change)

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Myles TurnerC-F · MILProbably real
Minutes-5.4

21 games since Feb 22 vs the 50 games before

Turner's playing time is down 5.4 minutes a game over his 21 games since Feb 22 (23.1 vs 28.5). The likely reason: Cormac Ryan joined the rotation on Mar 19 and played 23.1 MPG. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

  • New teammateCormac Ryan joined the rotation on Mar 19 and played 23.1 MPG

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Alexandre SarrC · WASPartly real
Minutes-7.1

9 games since Feb 5 vs the 39 games before

Sarr's playing time is down 7.1 minutes a game over his 9 games since Feb 5 (21.4 vs 28.5). The likely reason: Jaden Hardy joined the rotation on Feb 11 and played 20.6 MPG. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

  • New teammateJaden Hardy joined the rotation on Feb 11 and played 20.6 MPG

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Ivica ZubacC · INDProbably real
Points-4.3

21 games since Dec 20 vs the 27 games before

Zubac's scoring is down 4.3 points a game over his 21 games since Dec 20 (11.7 vs 16.0). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 32.9 to 26.8 a game, after Kobe Brown joined the rotation. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • MinutesHis minutes went from 32.9 to 26.8 a game (about 69% of the change)
  • New teammateKobe Brown joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 24.2 MPG
  • Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 13.9 to 12.9 (about 23% of the change)

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Evan MobleyF-C · CLEProbably real
3-point rate-9 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 40 games before

Mobley's 3-point rate is down 9 points over his last 25 games of the season (19% vs 28%). The likely reason: Darius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: James Harden joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 33.8 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outDarius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateJames Harden joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 33.8 MPG

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Kel'el WareC · MIAProbably real
Rebounds-2.8

39 games since Jan 11 vs the 38 games before

Ware's rebounding is down 2.8 rebounds a game over his 39 games since Jan 11 (7.6 vs 10.4). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 25.0 to 19.4 a game, after he moved to the bench. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • MinutesHis minutes went from 25.0 to 19.4 a game (about 84% of the change)
  • Starting roleHe started 7 of 39 games, down from 27 of 38
  • Per-minute rateHis rebounds per 36 minutes went from 15.0 to 14.2 (about 16% of the change)

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Kel'el WareC · MIAProbably real
Rim share-9 pts

39 games since Jan 11 vs the 38 games before

Ware's rim share is down 9 points over his 39 games since Jan 11 (45% vs 54%). The likely reason: he started 7 of 39 games, down from 27 of 38. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Starting roleHe started 7 of 39 games, down from 27 of 38

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Isaiah StewartF-C · DETProbably real
3-point rate-9 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 33 games before

Stewart's 3-point rate is down 9 points over his last 25 games of the season (25% vs 33%). The likely reason: Kevin Huerter joined the rotation on Feb 5 and played 20.5 MPG. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • New teammateKevin Huerter joined the rotation on Feb 5 and played 20.5 MPG

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Quinten PostC · GSWProbably real
3-point rate-9 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 42 games before

Post's 3-point rate is down 9 points over his last 25 games of the season (57% vs 66%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) played only 1 of 33 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Kristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.3 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outJimmy Butler (31 MPG before) played only 1 of 33 games, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateKristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.3 MPG

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Day'Ron SharpeC · BKNProbably real
3-point rate-9 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 37 games before

Sharpe's 3-point rate is down 9 points over his last 25 games of the season (6% vs 15%). The likely reason: Cam Thomas (25 MPG before) left the team. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outCam Thomas (25 MPG before) left the team

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Isaiah HartensteinF-C · OKCProbably real
Points-4.2

25 games since Dec 25 vs the 22 games before

Hartenstein's scoring is down 4.2 points a game over his 25 games since Dec 25 (7.2 vs 11.4). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 27.5 to 21.5 a game. Also shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 11.3 to 10.2. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • MinutesHis minutes went from 27.5 to 21.5 a game (about 60% of the change)
  • Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 11.3 to 10.2 (about 21% of the change)
  • EfficiencyHis TS% went from 66.1% to 59.4% (about 20% of the change)

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John CollinsF-C · LACPartly real
Corner-3 share-10 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 44 games before

Collins's corner-3 share is down 10 points over his last 25 games of the season (14% vs 24%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Bennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG. Partly real: about 60% should hold.

  • Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateBennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG

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Karl-Anthony TownsC · NYKProbably real
3-point rate-8 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 50 games before

Towns's 3-point rate is down 8 points over his last 25 games of the season (24% vs 32%). The likely reason: Miles McBride (28 MPG before) played only 5 of 27 games. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outMiles McBride (28 MPG before) played only 5 of 27 games

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Karl-Anthony TownsC · NYKProbably real
Above-the-break 3 share-8 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 50 games before

Towns's above-the-break 3 share is down 8 points over his last 25 games of the season (22% vs 31%). The likely reason: Miles McBride (28 MPG before) played only 5 of 27 games. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • Teammate outMiles McBride (28 MPG before) played only 5 of 27 games

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Isaiah StewartF-C · DETPartly real
Corner-3 share-10 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 33 games before

Stewart's corner-3 share is down 10 points over his last 25 games of the season (7% vs 16%). The likely reason: Kevin Huerter joined the rotation on Feb 5 and played 20.5 MPG. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

  • New teammateKevin Huerter joined the rotation on Feb 5 and played 20.5 MPG

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Al HorfordC-F · GSWPartly real
Corner-3 share-9 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 20 games before

Horford's corner-3 share is down 9 points over his last 25 games of the season (12% vs 21%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (32 MPG before) played only 4 of 43 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Kristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG. Partly real: about half should hold.

  • Teammate outJimmy Butler (32 MPG before) played only 4 of 43 games, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateKristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG
  • Starting roleHe started 12 of 25 games, up from 1 of 20

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Derik QueenC · NOPPartly real
TS%-4.1 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 56 games before

Queen's TS% is down 4.1 points over his last 25 games of the season (51.7% vs 55.8%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 11.9 points below what his shot spots predict (4.9 points below before), after he moved to the bench. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

  • Shot-makingHis TS% was 11.9 points below what his shot spots predict (4.9 points below before) (about 100% of the change)
  • Starting roleHe started 4 of 25 games, down from 44 of 56
  • New teammateDejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG

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Luke KornetF-C · SASPartly real
TS%-4.0 pts

31 games since Jan 28 vs the 37 games before

Kornet's TS% is down 4.0 points over his 31 games since Jan 28 (66.2% vs 70.3%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 1.7 points below what his shot spots predict (2.0 points above before), after he moved to the bench. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

  • Shot-makingHis TS% was 1.7 points below what his shot spots predict (2.0 points above before) (about 93% of the change)
  • Starting roleHe started 3 of 31 games, down from 22 of 37

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How this works

Windows

Every night we split each player's regular season (8+ games on each side) in one of three ways, in this order: the day he joined a new team; the game after which his minutes and usage shifted the most (a simple two-part split); or, if neither moved much, his last 10 games. Until the new season has enough games (about 20 each for most players) we use last season and its last 25 games, which catches the roles that changed at the trade deadline.

Is it big?

A change counts as big when it reaches:

  • Points: 4 points a game
  • Minutes: 5 minutes a game
  • Usage: 4 points
  • TS%: 4 points
  • 3P%: 5 points
  • 3-point rate: 8 points
  • Rim share: 8 points
  • Midrange share: 8 points
  • Corner-3 share: 8 points
  • Above-the-break 3 share: 8 points
  • Assists: 2 assists a game
  • Rebounds: 2.5 rebounds a game

Players need 15+ minutes a game on one side. Shooting needs 40+ threes or 60+ shots on each side.

Is it real?

Both windows are pulled toward the player's whole season by a fixed amount of weight M, the sample size where a stat is half skill and half luck: (window x n + season x M) / (n + M). A change is shown only if the pulled gap keeps at least half of the raw gap: Probably real keeps 60% or more, Partly real keeps 50 to 59%, anything less is Mostly noise and stays off the feed.

M values: 3P% 501 threes, TS% 218 shots and points 9.7 games, from Is it real?; minutes 9.4, usage 17, assists 18.9, rebounds 18.1, 3-point rate 13.9, rim share 18.2, midrange 16.8, corner 3 21.6 and above the break 15.4 games, measured on 1,766 pairs of back-to-back 10-game stretches in 2025-26. That is why 3P% changes almost never make it: threes are mostly luck until a player has taken hundreds.

Causes

Rules, each with a number. Points split exactly into minutes, shot volume and efficiency. Assists and rebounds split into minutes and per-minute rate. TS% and 3P% split into shot diet (league FG% from the spots he shot from) and shot-making (the rest). Context: a new team, a move into or out of the starting five (starting lineups from our stint data), key teammates (25+ minutes before) who missed most of the window, a new rotation player (20+ minutes), and opponents' defensive rating. We keep causes that explain 15%+ of the change and show the top three.

What we measured

Backtest on 2025-26: we ran this as if the season stopped on 3 dates and checked each flag against the rest of the season. Probably real changes kept 71% of their size on average (we predicted 66%) and 88% kept going the same way (301 flags). Partly real kept 60% (predicted 55%). Mostly noise kept 39% (predicted 33%), so the pull is a little cautious, which is the safe side.

Latest run: 393 players checked, 447 probably real and 180 partly real changes, and 273 big swings left out as mostly noise.

What it cannot see

Injuries a player played through, coaching decisions, matchups and schemes, and anything off the box score. Missing teammates are read from who played, not the injury report. Causes are rough splits, not proof; when nothing in our data fits we say so.