Wed, Oct 21 · 2026-27
Player projections
Expected minutes, points, rebounds, assists and threes for every player, from recent form, the opponent's defense by position and pace. Each number comes with an 80% range.
01Projections
Based on 2025-26: nobody has played 5 games of 2026-27 yet, so these use last season's per-minute numbers and expected minutes on each player's current roster. Players with fewer than 20 games last season are left out until they play. They switch to this season's games on their own.
| Player | Matchup | MIN | PTS ↑ | REB | AST | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwight PowellForward | at HOU | 15 | 3.50-10 | 4.31-9 | 1.10-3 | 0.00-1 |
| Caleb MartinForward | at HOU | 16 | 4.10-11 | 2.50-6 | 1.40-3 | 0.30-1 |
| Jarred VanderbiltForward | vs GSWvs top-5 defense | 18 | 4.50-10 | 4.51-8 | 1.30-3 | 0.40-2 |
| Leonard MillerForward | at TOR | 11 | 5.71-13 | 2.91-6 | 0.60-2 | 0.50-2 |
| Justin ChampagnieForward | vs MIL | 14 | 6.01-14 | 3.81-8 | 0.90-2 | 0.50-2 |
| Kris MurrayForward | vs UTA | 23 | 6.11-13 | 3.81-7 | 1.60-4 | 0.60-2 |
| Drake PowellForward | vs CHA | 21 | 6.31-13 | 1.60-4 | 1.40-3 | 0.80-2 |
| Oso IghodaroForward | at PORvs top-5 defense | 22 | 6.31-13 | 4.92-9 | 2.20-4 | 0.00-1 |
| Kyle AndersonForward | vs CHIvs bottom-5 defense | 20 | 6.61-13 | 3.61-7 | 3.11-6 | 0.10-1 |
| Isaiah JacksonForward | vs SACvs bottom-5 defense | 17 | 7.01-14 | 5.32-9 | 1.00-3 | 0.00-1 |
| Patrick WilliamsForward | at TOR | 21 | 7.11-14 | 3.11-6 | 1.50-3 | 1.30-3 |
| Moussa DiabateForward | at BKN | 26 | 7.42-14 | 8.04-13 | 1.80-4 | 0.00-1 |
| Jamir WatkinsForward | vs MIL | 21 | 7.71-15 | 4.01-8 | 1.50-3 | 1.00-2 |
| Keegan MurrayForward | at LAC | 20 | 7.71-15 | 3.11-6 | 0.90-2 | 0.70-2 |
| Jake LaRaviaForward | vs GSWvs top-5 defense | 25 | 8.02-15 | 3.81-7 | 1.80-4 | 0.90-2 |
| Taylor HendricksForward | vs UTA | 19 | 8.02-16 | 4.01-8 | 1.10-3 | 1.10-3 |
| Nikola JovicForward | vs MIN | 18 | 8.12-16 | 3.61-7 | 2.30-5 | 1.00-2 |
| Draymond GreenForward | at LAL | 27 | 8.12-15 | 5.22-9 | 5.32-9 | 1.40-3 |
| Danny WolfForward | vs CHA | 21 | 8.62-17 | 4.51-8 | 2.10-4 | 1.20-3 |
| Collin Murray-BoylesForward | vs CHIvs bottom-5 defense | 22 | 8.92-17 | 5.22-9 | 2.00-4 | 0.30-2 |
| Herbert JonesForward | vs IND | 28 | 9.03-16 | 3.41-6 | 2.71-5 | 1.40-3 |
| Cody WilliamsForward | at MIA | 24 | 9.13-17 | 3.11-6 | 2.10-4 | 0.40-2 |
| Gui SantosForward | at LAL | 21 | 9.12-17 | 3.81-7 | 2.30-5 | 1.10-3 |
| Royce O'NealeForward | at BKN | 28 | 9.23-17 | 4.42-8 | 2.50-5 | 2.41-5 |
| Isaac OkoroForward | at TOR | 27 | 9.23-17 | 2.81-5 | 1.50-4 | 1.10-3 |
| Daniel GaffordForward | at HOU | 22 | 9.53-18 | 6.83-11 | 1.00-3 | 0.00-1 |
| Zaccharie RisacherForward | at HOU | 23 | 9.53-18 | 3.81-7 | 1.10-3 | 1.30-3 |
| Precious AchiuwaForward | at LAC | 24 | 9.73-18 | 6.43-11 | 1.40-3 | 0.30-2 |
| Micah PotterForward | vs PHX | 20 | 9.83-18 | 4.92-9 | 1.50-3 | 1.50-3 |
| Jay HuffForward | at NOP | 21 | 9.93-18 | 4.11-8 | 1.60-4 | 1.50-3 |
| Derrick Jones Jr.Forward | vs SACvs bottom-5 defense | 27 | 10.03-18 | 3.31-6 | 1.40-3 | 1.10-3 |
| Tristan Da SilvaForward | vs ATL | 25 | 10.23-18 | 3.81-7 | 1.70-4 | 1.50-3 |
| Khris MiddletonForward | vs MIL | 23 | 10.33-19 | 3.71-7 | 2.91-6 | 1.10-3 |
| Jalen SmithForward | at TOR | 21 | 10.43-19 | 6.93-12 | 1.20-3 | 1.50-3 |
| Tari EasonForward | vs DAL | 26 | 10.54-19 | 6.23-10 | 1.50-4 | 1.50-3 |
| Will RileyForward | vs MIL | 22 | 10.53-19 | 2.90-6 | 2.10-4 | 1.10-3 |
| Isaiah StewartForward | vs UTA | 23 | 10.63-19 | 5.32-9 | 1.30-3 | 0.70-2 |
| Sandro MamukelashviliForward | vs GSWvs top-5 defense | 22 | 11.04-20 | 4.82-9 | 1.90-4 | 1.40-3 |
| Jonathan KumingaForward | at MIA | 21 | 11.24-20 | 5.32-9 | 2.10-4 | 0.90-2 |
| Rui HachimuraForward | vs SACvs bottom-5 defense | 28 | 11.34-20 | 3.11-6 | 0.80-2 | 1.70-4 |
| Noah ClowneyForward | vs CHA | 27 | 11.64-20 | 3.71-7 | 1.50-4 | 1.90-4 |
| Nicolas ClaxtonForward | at TOR | 27 | 11.64-20 | 6.93-11 | 3.61-7 | 0.00-1 |
| Jarace WalkerForward | at NOP | 26 | 11.85-20 | 5.32-9 | 2.71-5 | 1.70-4 |
| Wendell Carter Jr.Forward | vs ATL | 29 | 12.05-21 | 7.54-12 | 2.00-4 | 0.90-2 |
| Naz ReidForward | at BKN | 26 | 12.85-22 | 5.72-10 | 2.10-4 | 1.90-4 |
| Toumani CamaraForward | vs PHX | 32 | 12.95-21 | 4.92-8 | 2.30-5 | 2.51-5 |
| Kyle KuzmaForward | at WASvs bottom-5 defense | 26 | 13.05-22 | 4.52-8 | 2.71-5 | 1.20-3 |
| De'Andre HunterForward | at LAC | 26 | 13.15-22 | 3.91-7 | 2.00-4 | 1.50-3 |
| Jaylen WellsForward | vs UTA | 26 | 13.15-22 | 3.31-6 | 1.80-4 | 1.90-4 |
| GG JacksonForward | vs UTA | 22 | 13.55-23 | 4.62-8 | 1.70-4 | 1.20-3 |
| Santi AldamaForward | at HOU | 27 | 13.76-23 | 6.43-10 | 2.81-6 | 1.50-3 |
| P.J. WashingtonForward | at HOU | 30 | 13.76-22 | 6.73-11 | 1.70-4 | 1.30-3 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.Forward | at NOP | 31 | 14.16-22 | 5.12-8 | 1.70-4 | 1.70-4 |
| Bobby PortisForward | vs MIN | 24 | 14.36-24 | 6.73-11 | 1.60-4 | 2.00-4 |
| Airious BaileyForward | at MEMvs bottom-5 defense | 27 | 14.46-24 | 4.42-8 | 1.90-4 | 1.90-4 |
| KyShawn GeorgeForward | vs MIL | 28 | 14.77-24 | 5.02-9 | 4.62-8 | 2.10-4 |
| Naji MarshallForward | at HOU | 29 | 14.87-24 | 4.52-8 | 3.11-6 | 0.80-2 |
| Onyeka OkongwuForward | at ORLvs top-5 defense | 30 | 14.96-23 | 7.54-12 | 3.01-6 | 1.80-4 |
| Jaden McDanielsForward | at MIA | 31 | 15.06-24 | 4.42-7 | 2.71-5 | 1.40-3 |
| Jabari Smith Jr.Forward | vs DAL | 34 | 15.57-24 | 6.63-10 | 1.80-4 | 2.20-4 |
| Andrew WigginsForward | vs MIN | 30 | 15.87-26 | 5.02-9 | 2.71-5 | 2.00-4 |
| Brice SensabaughForward | at MEMvs bottom-5 defense | 24 | 16.07-27 | 3.31-7 | 2.10-4 | 2.21-4 |
| Matas BuzelisForward | at TOR | 29 | 16.18-26 | 5.83-10 | 2.00-4 | 2.10-4 |
| Miles BridgesForward | at PORvs top-5 defense | 30 | 16.27-25 | 5.52-9 | 3.01-6 | 1.70-4 |
| Franz WagnerForward | vs ATL | 25 | 17.69-28 | 4.42-8 | 2.91-6 | 1.20-3 |
| Saddiq BeyForward | vs IND | 31 | 17.88-27 | 5.62-9 | 2.50-5 | 2.00-4 |
| Brandon MillerForward | at BKN | 30 | 18.810-30 | 4.52-8 | 3.11-6 | 2.81-5 |
| Jerami GrantForward | vs UTA | 29 | 19.310-30 | 3.61-7 | 2.40-5 | 2.41-5 |
| Julius RandleForward | vs CHA | 32 | 19.710-29 | 6.03-10 | 4.62-8 | 1.30-3 |
| RJ BarrettForward | vs CHIvs bottom-5 defense | 30 | 19.810-31 | 5.32-9 | 3.41-6 | 1.70-4 |
| Alperen SengunForward | vs DAL | 32 | 20.110-30 | 8.65-13 | 6.23-10 | 0.50-2 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.Forward | at MEMvs bottom-5 defense | 30 | 20.111-31 | 6.03-10 | 2.00-4 | 1.80-4 |
| Cooper FlaggForward | at HOU | 33 | 20.310-30 | 6.33-10 | 4.32-7 | 0.90-2 |
| Brandon IngramForward | vs SACvs bottom-5 defense | 33 | 20.911-31 | 5.22-9 | 3.71-7 | 1.70-4 |
| Zion WilliamsonForward | vs IND | 29 | 21.212-33 | 5.73-10 | 3.11-6 | 0.00-1 |
| Norman PowellForward | at TOR | 29 | 21.412-33 | 3.51-7 | 2.40-5 | 2.51-5 |
| Trey Murphy IIIForward | vs IND | 34 | 21.511-32 | 5.72-9 | 3.71-7 | 3.11-6 |
| Jalen JohnsonForward | at ORLvs top-5 defense | 34 | 21.912-32 | 10.16-15 | 7.44-11 | 1.50-3 |
| Paolo BancheroForward | vs ATL | 34 | 22.312-33 | 8.44-13 | 5.22-9 | 1.10-3 |
| Michael Porter Jr.Forward | vs CHA | 32 | 22.612-33 | 6.33-10 | 2.81-5 | 3.21-6 |
| Deni AvdijaForward | vs PHX | 32 | 23.313-34 | 6.53-10 | 6.43-10 | 1.80-4 |
| Pascal SiakamForward | at NOP | 32 | 23.913-35 | 6.73-10 | 3.91-7 | 1.70-3 |
| Kevin DurantForward | vs DAL | 35 | 25.214-36 | 5.22-9 | 4.72-8 | 2.20-4 |
| Giannis AntetokounmpoForward | vs MIN | 25 | 25.215-38 | 8.95-14 | 4.82-8 | 0.40-2 |
| Lauri MarkkanenForward | at MEMvs bottom-5 defense | 33 | 27.516-39 | 7.24-11 | 2.20-4 | 2.71-5 |
| Kawhi LeonardForward | vs CHIvs bottom-5 defense | 31 | 28.517-40 | 6.43-10 | 3.71-7 | 2.71-5 |
| Luka DoncicForward | vs GSWvs top-5 defense | 35 | 31.819-44 | 7.24-11 | 8.14-12 | 3.71-6 |
Small numbers under each projection are the 80% range. Defense chips rank the opponent on points allowed per 100 possessions to his position group: bottom-5 means one of the five most generous. 87 players shown.
Check a prop line
Projection 31.8 (80% range 19-44). Type the line from your sportsbook to see the over and under chances.
One game is noisy: even a good projection misses by several points most nights. Add it to a parlay.
02Track record
No projected games are final yet. Here is how the model did replaying 2025-26.
2025-26 backtest: average miss per player game
| Stat | This model | Season average | Last 10 average | Gain vs season avg | Inside 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 4.58 | 4.69 | 4.66 | 2.2% | 80% |
| Rebounds | 1.88 | 1.91 | 1.93 | 1.6% | 81% |
| Assists | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.3% | 80% |
| Threes made | 0.89 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 1.1% | 80% |
| Minutes | 5.03 | 5.43 | 5.12 | 7.4% | n/a |
Lower is better. Season and last-10 averages are the simple guesses the model has to beat.
How this works
The method
Two steps. First we project minutes from a player's minutes per game this season, over his last 10 games and over his last 5 (the last 5 count the most), plus home court and the second night of a back-to-back. Then each stat is his per-minute rate (season, last 10 and last 5) times those minutes, adjusted for the opponent and the pace.
The opponent adjustment compares how many points, rebounds, assists and threes the opponent allows per 100 possessions to his position group (guards, forwards or centers) with the league. Early in a season it leans on last season's number. An opponent that allows 10% more points to his position adds about 2.1% to his points. A game 3% faster than average adds about 5.5%.
The weights were fit by least squares on 24,874 player games from 2025-26. The 80% ranges come from how far real results landed from the projection in testing, grouped by projected minutes.
How we tested it
We replayed 2025-26 from Mon, Dec 1 to Sun, Apr 12, refitting on the first of each month using only earlier games, and projected 19,968 player games. The average miss on points was 4.58, against 4.69 for his season average and 4.66 for his last-10 average. The gain is small, but it held for every stat, and 80% of real point totals landed inside the 80% range.
A gradient boosting model on the same inputs missed by 4.65 points, so we kept the simpler model. It runs inside our database every morning.
What it cannot see
Injuries, rest days, who starts and trades after the morning update. It projects every active player as if he plays, and it is graded only on players who did. Minutes are the biggest source of error: had we known each player's real minutes, the average miss on points would have been 3.74 instead of 4.58. Blowouts cut starters' minutes and are not predicted.
Until a player has 5 games in a season, his projection uses last season's per-minute numbers and his expected minutes on his current roster (last season's minutes handed out down the depth chart). That early-season mode could not be tested, because our data starts in 2025-26. Rookies without NBA games get no projection, and neither do players with fewer than 20 games last season (a few games is too small a sample) until they play this season (Decision #87).
Updated every morning for the next seven days of games. Once a game tips off its projections are frozen, and those frozen numbers are what we grade.