Skip to content

Heat at Celtics · Fri, Apr 2 · 7:30 PM ET

Miami at Boston. Here is where each team has the edge.

MiamiBoston

7:30 PM ET
Loading
Pregame win chance

The win-chance line starts at tip-off.

Every basket moves it.

From team Elo ratings, home court and rest. How this works

Loading win probability…

01Where the edges are

Based on 2025-26

Heat edges

  • On offenseMiami's offense protects the ball (4th) against a Boston defense that rarely forces turnovers (26th).

Celtics edges

No clear mismatch in Boston's favor.

An edge is where one team ranks top 5 on a four-factor battle and the other ranks bottom 8. How edges work

Using last season's numbers until both teams have played 10 games this season. Rosters may have changed.

02Tale of the tape

Based on 2025-26
MIARankStatRankBOS
117.513thOffensive rating2nd121.7
115.212thDefensive rating4th113.5
+2.313thNet rating3rd+8.2
102.81stPace30th94.2
54.217thEffective FG %11th55.3
11.24thTurnover %1st10.5
25.417thOffensive rebound %6th29.2
21.214thFree throw rate29th16.7
54.07thOpponent eFG %4th52.3
12.217thForced turnover %26th11.0
74.98thDefensive rebound %4th75.7
19.39thOpponent FT rate5th18.9

Game plan

Loading game plan…

03Form and season series

Heat4-6 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L

Celtics5-5 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W

2025-26 series: Fri, Dec 19 MIA 116, BOS 129 · Thu, Jan 15 BOS 119, MIA 114 · Fri, Feb 6 MIA 96, BOS 98 · Wed, Apr 1 BOS 147, MIA 129

04Key players

Current roster · 2025-26 numbers