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Heat at Nuggets · Sun, Mar 14 · 7:30 PM ET

Miami at Denver. Here is where each team has the edge.

Heat reportNuggets report

MiamiDenver

7:30 PM ET
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Pregame win chance

The win-chance line starts at tip-off.

Every basket moves it.

From team Elo ratings, home court and rest. How this works

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01Where the edges are

Based on 2025-26

Heat edges

  • On offenseMiami's offense protects the ball (4th) against a Denver defense that rarely forces turnovers (30th).

Nuggets edges

No clear mismatch in Denver's favor.

An edge is where one team ranks top 5 on a four-factor battle and the other ranks bottom 8. How edges work

Using last season's numbers until both teams have played 10 games this season. Rosters may have changed.

02Tale of the tape

Based on 2025-26
MIARankStatRankDEN
117.513thOffensive rating1st123.4
115.212thDefensive rating21st118.2
+2.313thNet rating7th+5.2
102.81stPace20th97.7
54.217thEffective FG %1st57.7
11.24thTurnover %3rd10.9
25.417thOffensive rebound %24th23.6
21.214thFree throw rate4th23.7
54.07thOpponent eFG %14th54.3
12.217thForced turnover %30th10.0
74.98thDefensive rebound %7th75.3
19.39thOpponent FT rate10th19.6

Game plan

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03Form and season series

Heat4-6 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L

Nuggets6-4 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W

2025-26 series: Wed, Nov 5 MIA 112, DEN 122 · Mon, Dec 29 DEN 123, MIA 147

04Key players

Current roster · 2025-26 numbers