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Heat at Rockets · Sun, Feb 28 · 9:30 PM ET

Miami at Houston. Here is where each team has the edge.

MiamiHouston

9:30 PM ET
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Pregame win chance

The win-chance line starts at tip-off.

Every basket moves it.

From team Elo ratings, home court and rest. How this works

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01Where the edges are

Based on 2025-26

Heat edges

No clear mismatch in Miami's favor.

Rockets edges

No clear mismatch in Houston's favor.

An edge is where one team ranks top 5 on a four-factor battle and the other ranks bottom 8. How edges work

Using last season's numbers until both teams have played 10 games this season. Rosters may have changed.

02Tale of the tape

Based on 2025-26
MIARankStatRankHOU
117.513thOffensive rating8th119.6
115.212thDefensive rating7th114.2
+2.313thNet rating6th+5.4
102.81stPace29th95.2
54.217thEffective FG %17th54.2
11.24thTurnover %20th12.6
25.417thOffensive rebound %1st34.8
21.214thFree throw rate19th19.9
54.07thOpponent eFG %6th53.0
12.217thForced turnover %21st11.6
74.98thDefensive rebound %9th74.5
19.39thOpponent FT rate5th18.9

Game plan

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03Form and season series

Heat4-6 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L

Rockets5-5 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W

2025-26 series: Sat, Feb 28 HOU 105, MIA 115 · Sat, Mar 21 MIA 122, HOU 123

04Key players

Current roster · 2025-26 numbers