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Warriors at Heat · Sun, Jan 17 · 6:00 PM ET

Golden State at Miami. Here is where each team has the edge.

Golden StateMiami

6:00 PM ET
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Pregame win chance

The win-chance line starts at tip-off.

Every basket moves it.

From team Elo ratings, home court and rest. How this works

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01Where the edges are

Based on 2025-26

Warriors edges

No clear mismatch in Golden State's favor.

Heat edges

No clear mismatch in Miami's favor.

Key battles

  • Miami's offense protects the ball (4th), but Golden State's defense forces turnovers (4th). Watch the turnovers.

An edge is where one team ranks top 5 on a four-factor battle and the other ranks bottom 8. How edges work

Using last season's numbers until both teams have played 10 games this season. Rosters may have changed.

02Tale of the tape

Based on 2025-26
GSWRankStatRankMIA
115.818thOffensive rating13th117.5
116.417thDefensive rating12th115.2
-0.620thNet rating13th+2.3
98.318thPace1st102.8
54.913thEffective FG %17th54.2
13.327thTurnover %4th11.2
25.814thOffensive rebound %17th25.4
19.223rdFree throw rate14th21.2
55.320thOpponent eFG %7th54.0
13.54thForced turnover %17th12.2
72.922ndDefensive rebound %8th74.9
19.812thOpponent FT rate9th19.3

Game plan

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03Form and season series

Warriors2-8 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. L

Heat4-6 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L

2025-26 series: Wed, Nov 19 GSW 96, MIA 110 · Mon, Jan 19 MIA 112, GSW 135

04Key players

Current roster · 2025-26 numbers