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Heat at Mavericks · Tue, Dec 29 · 8:00 PM ET

Miami at Dallas. Here is where each team has the edge.

MiamiDallas

8:00 PM ET
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Pregame win chance

The win-chance line starts at tip-off.

Every basket moves it.

From team Elo ratings, home court and rest. How this works

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01Where the edges are

Based on 2025-26

Heat edges

  • On offenseMiami's offense protects the ball (4th) against a Dallas defense that rarely forces turnovers (28th).

Mavericks edges

No clear mismatch in Dallas' favor.

An edge is where one team ranks top 5 on a four-factor battle and the other ranks bottom 8. How edges work

Using last season's numbers until both teams have played 10 games this season. Rosters may have changed.

02Tale of the tape

Based on 2025-26
MIARankStatRankDAL
117.513thOffensive rating27th111.9
115.212thDefensive rating20th117.3
+2.313thNet rating23rd-5.4
102.81stPace4th101.1
54.217thEffective FG %27th52.7
11.24thTurnover %14th12.1
25.417thOffensive rebound %26th23.2
21.214thFree throw rate9th21.7
54.07thOpponent eFG %18th54.6
12.217thForced turnover %28th10.9
74.98thDefensive rebound %15th74.1
19.39thOpponent FT rate2nd18.3

Game plan

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03Form and season series

Heat4-6 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L

Mavericks3-7 in the last 10

  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. L

2025-26 series: Mon, Nov 24 DAL 102, MIA 106 · Wed, Dec 3 MIA 108, DAL 118

04Key players

Current roster · 2025-26 numbers