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Game plans

Thursday, March 26

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Wizards at Lakers

How the Wizards beat the Lakers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
  2. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Wizards defense there ranks 2nd (40.6% allowed).
  4. AttackAttack the rimThe Wizards shoot 67.3% at the rim (9th), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).
  5. TempoPush the paceThe Wizards play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Lakers at 97.6 (21st). Run and make them keep up.

How the Lakers beat the Wizards

  1. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
  2. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Lakers defense there ranks 29th (44.7% allowed).
  3. TempoSlow it downThe Lakers play at 97.6 possessions per 48 minutes (21st in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony DavisDavis (20.4 points per game): best in the paint (44% on 77 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (38%, league 42%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneWAS offenseLAL defenseLAL offenseWAS defense
At the rim67.3% (9th)70.5% (29th)73.4% (1st)68.5% (26th)
Paint38.9% (28th)43.0% (9th)48.8% (1st)40.6% (2nd)
Midrange43.4% (8th)44.7% (29th)44.4% (5th)41.9% (14th)
Corner 339.2% (10th)37.7% (8th)34.9% (29th)40.9% (28th)
Above-the-break 334.9% (16th)34.2% (10th)36.3% (6th)35.5% (20th)

02Matchups on Thu, Mar 26

3 games
  • Knicks at HornetsFinal

    How the Knicks beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Knicks defense there ranks 21st (35.5% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon MillerMiller (20.2 points per game): best from the corners (42% on 71 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (37%, league 42%).

    How the Hornets beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Hornets defense there ranks 16th (38.8% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pelicans at PistonsFinal

    How the Pelicans beat the Pistons

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd) and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    How the Pistons beat the Pelicans

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd), and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
    2. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at MagicFinal

    How the Kings beat the Magic

    1. AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    How the Magic beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Magic defense there ranks 23rd (45.3% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.