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Game plans

Wednesday, March 11

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Wizards at Celtics

How the Wizards beat the Celtics

  1. TempoPush the paceThe Wizards play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
  2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th) and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
  3. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Wizards defense there ranks 20th (35.5% allowed).
  4. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).
  5. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).

How the Celtics beat the Wizards

  1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
  2. AttackAttack the rimThe Celtics shoot 70.5% at the rim (2nd), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
  3. AttackAttack the corner 3The Celtics shoot 41.8% from the corners (4th), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
  4. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th), and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
  5. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Celtics defense there ranks 21st (42.5% allowed).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneWAS offenseBOS defenseBOS offenseWAS defense
At the rim67.3% (9th)64.8% (7th)70.5% (2nd)68.5% (26th)
Paint38.9% (28th)41.4% (4th)48.2% (3rd)40.6% (2nd)
Midrange43.4% (8th)42.5% (21st)39.9% (21st)41.9% (14th)
Corner 339.2% (10th)36.2% (2nd)41.8% (4th)40.9% (28th)
Above-the-break 334.9% (16th)35.7% (24th)35.6% (10th)35.5% (20th)

02Matchups on Wed, Mar 11

6 games
  • Cavaliers at MagicFinal

    How the Cavaliers beat the Magic

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    How the Magic beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at PelicansFinal

    How the Raptors beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    How the Pelicans beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Pelicans defense there ranks 18th (66.7% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Knicks at JazzFinal

    How the Knicks beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Knicks shoot 44.9% from midrange (2nd), and the Jazz allow 44.1% there (28th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Jazz defense there ranks 21st (39.2% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at NuggetsFinal

    How the Rockets beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Nuggets defense there ranks 22nd (45.3% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at KingsFinal

    How the Hornets beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Hornets defense there ranks 11th (43.8% allowed).

    How the Kings beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Kings defense there ranks 30th (37.6% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at ClippersFinal

    How the Timberwolves beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Timberwolves shoot 36.5% from above the break (3rd), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Clippers beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Clippers shoot 41.6% from the corners (5th), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Timberwolves at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.