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Game plans

Thursday, October 22

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Jazz at Grizzlies

How the Jazz beat the Grizzlies

  1. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Jazz defense there ranks 30th (48.8% allowed).
  2. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Grizzlies allow 44.9% there (21st of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Ty JeromeJerome (19.7 points per game): best in the paint (53% on 64 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%). 40% on the left side, 47% on the right; push him left.
  4. AttackAttack the corner 311.9% of Jazz shots come from the corners (7th most), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).
  5. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

How the Grizzlies beat the Jazz

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
  2. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most) and they make 47.6% (5th). The Grizzlies defense there ranks 21st (44.9% allowed).
  4. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.0% of Grizzlies shots come from above the break (8th most), and the Jazz allow 36.4% there (27th of 30).
  5. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th), and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneUTA offenseMEM defenseMEM offenseUTA defense
At the rim66.5% (14th)68.4% (24th)64.1% (25th)72.0% (30th)
Paint47.6% (5th)44.9% (21st)45.9% (8th)48.8% (30th)
Midrange38.8% (25th)43.1% (24th)40.3% (19th)44.1% (28th)
Corner 338.1% (16th)39.6% (23rd)36.5% (27th)39.2% (21st)
Above-the-break 332.9% (29th)35.2% (18th)34.8% (18th)36.4% (27th)

02Matchups on Thu, Oct 22

2 games
  • Cavaliers at 76ers7:00 PM ET

    How the Cavaliers beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at Thunder9:30 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Thunder shoot 67.2% at the rim (10th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.