Game plans · Thursday, January 8
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Jazz at Thunder
How the Jazz beat the Thunder
- Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd) and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
- AttackAttack the corner 311.9% of Jazz shots come from the corners (7th most), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).
- TempoPush the paceThe Jazz play at 101.6 possessions per 48 minutes (3rd in pace), the Thunder at 98.5 (16th). Run and make them keep up.
How the Thunder beat the Jazz
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Jazz allow 44.1% there (28th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
- AttackAttack the paintThe Thunder shoot 46.1% in the paint (7th), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).
- Take awayTake away the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most) and they make 47.6% (5th). The Thunder defense there ranks 1st (39.9% allowed).
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd), and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
| Zone | UTA offense | OKC defense | OKC offense | UTA defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 66.5% (14th) | 60.1% (1st) | 67.2% (10th) | 72.0% (30th) |
| Paint | 47.6% (5th) | 39.9% (1st) | 46.1% (7th) | 48.8% (30th) |
| Midrange | 38.8% (25th) | 38.0% (1st) | 48.1% (1st) | 44.1% (28th) |
| Corner 3 | 38.1% (16th) | 39.9% (24th) | 38.1% (17th) | 39.2% (21st) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 32.9% (29th) | 35.6% (23rd) | 35.9% (8th) | 36.4% (27th) |
Matchups on Thu, Jan 8
- Pacers at Hornets
How the Pacers beat the Hornets
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Pacers defense there ranks 8th (34.2% allowed).
- TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.
How the Hornets beat the Pacers
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Hornets shoot 42.8% from the corners (3rd), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
- Cavaliers at Timberwolves
How the Cavaliers beat the Timberwolves
- Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
How the Timberwolves beat the Cavaliers
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Timberwolves shoot 36.5% from above the break (3rd), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
- Mavericks at Jazz
How the Mavericks beat the Jazz
- Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
- AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Jazz allow 44.1% there (28th of 30).
How the Jazz beat the Mavericks
- AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.