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Game plans · Thursday, February 12

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Raptors at Bucks

How the Raptors beat the Bucks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Raptors defense there ranks 14th (38.6% allowed).
  3. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th), and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
  4. AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Bucks allow 68.5% there (25th of 30).

How the Bucks beat the Raptors

  1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
  3. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Bucks defense there ranks 25th (68.5% allowed).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneTOR offenseMIL defenseMIL offenseTOR defense
At the rim67.7% (7th)68.5% (25th)68.7% (5th)66.0% (15th)
Paint43.6% (20th)41.1% (3rd)42.7% (23rd)44.5% (19th)
Midrange44.1% (6th)42.0% (15th)42.3% (12th)39.8% (7th)
Corner 338.6% (13th)41.1% (29th)42.9% (2nd)38.6% (14th)
Above-the-break 334.1% (23rd)36.4% (26th)36.9% (2nd)33.7% (2nd)

Matchups on Thu, Feb 12

3 games
  • Bucks at ThunderFinal

    How the Bucks beat the Thunder

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).

    How the Thunder beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Thunder defense there ranks 24th (39.9% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at JazzFinal

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim33.5% of Trail Blazers shots come at the rim (4th most), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Trail Blazers force turnovers on 13.0% of plays (7th) and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at LakersFinal

    How the Mavericks beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).

    How the Lakers beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.