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Game plans · Saturday, December 13

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Raptors at Heat

How the Raptors beat the Heat

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
  2. TempoSlow it downThe Raptors play at 97.5 possessions per 48 minutes (22nd in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

How the Heat beat the Raptors

  1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Raptors at 97.5 (22nd). Run and make them keep up.
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
  3. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Heat defense there ranks 11th (65.3% allowed).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneTOR offenseMIA defenseMIA offenseTOR defense
At the rim67.7% (7th)65.3% (11th)65.1% (20th)66.0% (15th)
Paint43.6% (20th)44.8% (20th)44.2% (17th)44.5% (19th)
Midrange44.1% (6th)39.5% (4th)37.8% (26th)39.8% (7th)
Corner 338.6% (13th)39.0% (18th)37.6% (19th)38.6% (14th)
Above-the-break 334.1% (23rd)34.7% (16th)35.6% (9th)33.7% (2nd)

Matchups on Sat, Dec 13

2 games
  • Knicks at MagicFinal

    How the Knicks beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Knicks play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Magic at 99.3 (12th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Magic beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Magic defense there ranks 13th (38.5% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at ThunderFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 313.9% of Spurs shots come from the corners (1st most), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.