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Game plans · Friday, February 5

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Spurs at Clippers

How the Spurs beat the Clippers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
  2. TempoPush the paceThe Spurs play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

How the Clippers beat the Spurs

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
  2. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Make it a half-court game.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneSAS offenseLAC defenseLAC offenseSAS defense
At the rim67.1% (12th)67.2% (20th)69.4% (3rd)62.7% (5th)
Paint45.7% (10th)43.5% (10th)45.3% (12th)42.5% (7th)
Midrange43.6% (7th)39.4% (3rd)41.4% (17th)42.5% (22nd)
Corner 338.9% (12th)38.8% (15th)41.6% (5th)34.6% (1st)
Above-the-break 334.4% (20th)35.6% (22nd)35.1% (14th)35.4% (19th)

Matchups on Fri, Feb 5

6 games
  • Celtics at Hawks7:00 PM ET

    How the Celtics beat the Hawks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Hawks play at 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes (7th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Hawks shoot 36.4% from above the break (4th), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at Hornets7:00 PM ET

    How the Warriors beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Warriors defense there ranks 13th (34.4% allowed).
    2. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Warriors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th), and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    How the Hornets beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Hornets shoot 42.8% from the corners (3rd), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at 76ers7:00 PM ET

    How the Pistons beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Pistons

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at Nuggets9:00 PM ET

    How the Clippers beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Clippers shoot 69.4% at the rim (3rd), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Nuggets shoot 37.8% from above the break (1st), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at Suns9:00 PM ET

    How the Rockets beat the Suns

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    How the Suns beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at Thunder9:30 PM ET

    How the Pacers beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).

    How the Thunder beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Thunder shoot 46.1% in the paint (7th), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.