Game plans
Tuesday, March 24
How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.
01Plan any matchup
Spurs at Warriors
How the Spurs beat the Warriors
- AttackAttack the corner 313.9% of Spurs shots come from the corners (1st most), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Spurs shoot 43.6% from midrange (7th), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).
- Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most) and they make 39.5% (8th). The Spurs defense there ranks 1st (34.6% allowed).
- AttackAttack the paintThe Spurs shoot 45.7% in the paint (10th), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
How the Warriors beat the Spurs
- Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
| Zone | SAS offense | GSW defense | GSW offense | SAS defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 67.1% (12th) | 67.8% (22nd) | 68.9% (4th) | 62.7% (5th) |
| Paint | 45.7% (10th) | 47.0% (26th) | 43.4% (21st) | 42.5% (7th) |
| Midrange | 43.6% (7th) | 43.1% (26th) | 39.5% (23rd) | 42.5% (22nd) |
| Corner 3 | 38.9% (12th) | 40.9% (27th) | 39.5% (8th) | 34.6% (1st) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 34.4% (20th) | 34.4% (13th) | 34.1% (24th) | 35.4% (19th) |
02Matchups on Tue, Mar 24
- Kings at Hornets
How the Kings beat the Hornets
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Kings defense there ranks 30th (37.6% allowed).
- TempoPush the paceThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.
How the Hornets beat the Kings
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
- Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Hornets defense there ranks 11th (43.8% allowed).
- Pelicans at Knicks
How the Pelicans beat the Knicks
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
- Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Pelicans defense there ranks 5th (37.0% allowed).
How the Knicks beat the Pelicans
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Knicks grab 29.3% of their misses (5th), and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
- Magic at Cavaliers
How the Magic beat the Cavaliers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
How the Cavaliers beat the Magic
- AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
- Nuggets at Suns
How the Nuggets beat the Suns
- Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
How the Suns beat the Nuggets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.