Game plans ยท Tuesday, March 3
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Spurs at Raptors
How the Spurs beat the Raptors
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
- Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Spurs defense there ranks 5th (62.7% allowed).
How the Raptors beat the Spurs
- Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
| Zone | SAS offense | TOR defense | TOR offense | SAS defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 67.1% (12th) | 66.0% (15th) | 67.7% (7th) | 62.7% (5th) |
| Paint | 45.7% (10th) | 44.5% (19th) | 43.6% (20th) | 42.5% (7th) |
| Midrange | 43.6% (7th) | 39.8% (7th) | 44.1% (6th) | 42.5% (22nd) |
| Corner 3 | 38.9% (12th) | 38.6% (14th) | 38.6% (13th) | 34.6% (1st) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 34.4% (20th) | 33.7% (2nd) | 34.1% (23rd) | 35.4% (19th) |
Matchups on Tue, Mar 3
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How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.