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Game plans · Monday, December 8

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Spurs at Pelicans

How the Spurs beat the Pelicans

  1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).
  3. AttackAttack the paintThe Spurs shoot 45.7% in the paint (10th), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).

How the Pelicans beat the Spurs

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneSAS offenseNOP defenseNOP offenseSAS defense
At the rim67.1% (12th)66.7% (18th)62.8% (29th)62.7% (5th)
Paint45.7% (10th)47.9% (28th)38.0% (30th)42.5% (7th)
Midrange43.6% (7th)40.9% (12th)33.7% (30th)42.5% (22nd)
Corner 338.9% (12th)37.0% (5th)39.2% (9th)34.6% (1st)
Above-the-break 334.4% (20th)34.3% (12th)33.2% (26th)35.4% (19th)

Matchups on Mon, Dec 8

3 games
  • Kings at PacersFinal

    How the Kings beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Pacers beat the Kings

    1. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Pacers defense there ranks 27th (47.1% allowed).
    2. AttackAttack midrange11.6% of Pacers shots come from midrange (7th most), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at TimberwolvesFinal

    How the Suns beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Suns shoot 39.6% from the corners (7th), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Timberwolves shoot 67.4% at the rim (8th), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Timberwolves play at 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes (9th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at PelicansFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    How the Pelicans beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.