Game plans · Saturday, December 19
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Kings at Heat
How the Kings beat the Heat
- Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
- TempoSlow it downThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.
How the Heat beat the Kings
- AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Heat shoot 35.6% from above the break (9th), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
- Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Heat defense there ranks 20th (44.8% allowed).
- TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Kings at 98.5 (16th). Run and make them keep up.
- Key scorerKey scorer: Zach LaVineLaVine (19.2 points per game): best from the corners (45% on 55 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%). 37% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
| Zone | SAC offense | MIA defense | MIA offense | SAC defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 68.2% (6th) | 65.3% (11th) | 65.1% (20th) | 69.8% (28th) |
| Paint | 45.7% (9th) | 44.8% (20th) | 44.2% (17th) | 48.7% (29th) |
| Midrange | 41.8% (16th) | 39.5% (4th) | 37.8% (26th) | 43.7% (27th) |
| Corner 3 | 35.1% (28th) | 39.0% (18th) | 37.6% (19th) | 39.0% (17th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 33.7% (25th) | 34.7% (16th) | 35.6% (9th) | 37.6% (30th) |
Matchups on Sat, Dec 19
- Trail Blazers at Hornets
How the Trail Blazers beat the Hornets
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Trail Blazers defense there ranks 14th (34.5% allowed).
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th) and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).
How the Hornets beat the Trail Blazers
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th), and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Trail Blazers force turnovers on 13.0% of plays (7th) and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
- Magic at Hawks
How the Magic beat the Hawks
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).
How the Hawks beat the Magic
- Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
- Bulls at Mavericks
How the Bulls beat the Mavericks
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).
How the Mavericks beat the Bulls
- AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).
- Lakers at Nuggets
How the Lakers beat the Nuggets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).
How the Nuggets beat the Lakers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.