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Game plans

Tuesday, March 24

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Kings at Raptors

How the Kings beat the Raptors

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
  2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Kings defense there ranks 28th (69.8% allowed).

How the Raptors beat the Kings

  1. AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Raptors defense there ranks 19th (44.5% allowed).
  4. AttackAttack the paint20.9% of Raptors shots come in the paint (9th most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
  5. Key scorerKey scorer: Zach LaVineLaVine (19.2 points per game): best from the corners (45% on 55 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%). 37% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneSAC offenseTOR defenseTOR offenseSAC defense
At the rim68.2% (6th)66.0% (15th)67.7% (7th)69.8% (28th)
Paint45.7% (9th)44.5% (19th)43.6% (20th)48.7% (29th)
Midrange41.8% (16th)39.8% (7th)44.1% (6th)43.7% (27th)
Corner 335.1% (28th)38.6% (14th)38.6% (13th)39.0% (17th)
Above-the-break 333.7% (25th)33.7% (2nd)34.1% (23rd)37.6% (30th)

02Matchups on Tue, Mar 24

4 games
  • Kings at HornetsFinal

    How the Kings beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Kings defense there ranks 30th (37.6% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Hornets beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Hornets defense there ranks 11th (43.8% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pelicans at KnicksFinal

    How the Pelicans beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Pelicans defense there ranks 5th (37.0% allowed).

    How the Knicks beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Knicks grab 29.3% of their misses (5th), and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at CavaliersFinal

    How the Magic beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    How the Cavaliers beat the Magic

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at SunsFinal

    How the Nuggets beat the Suns

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    How the Suns beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.