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Game plans · Wednesday, February 25

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Kings at Mavericks

How the Kings beat the Mavericks

  1. AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
  3. TempoSlow it downThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

How the Mavericks beat the Kings

  1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Mavericks shots come in the paint (8th most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Mavericks defense there ranks 24th (45.5% allowed).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Zach LaVineLaVine (19.2 points per game): best from the corners (45% on 55 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%). 37% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
  5. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Kings at 98.5 (16th). Run and make them keep up.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneSAC offenseDAL defenseDAL offenseSAC defense
At the rim68.2% (6th)66.2% (16th)64.6% (24th)69.8% (28th)
Paint45.7% (9th)45.5% (24th)45.4% (11th)48.7% (29th)
Midrange41.8% (16th)42.7% (23rd)39.4% (24th)43.7% (27th)
Corner 335.1% (28th)37.2% (6th)37.1% (25th)39.0% (17th)
Above-the-break 333.7% (25th)34.2% (9th)33.2% (28th)37.6% (30th)

Matchups on Wed, Feb 25

6 games
  • Thunder at PistonsFinal

    How the Thunder beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    How the Pistons beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at RaptorsFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Spurs defense there ranks 5th (62.7% allowed).

    How the Raptors beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at GrizzliesFinal

    How the Warriors beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Grizzlies allow 68.4% there (24th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at RocketsFinal

    How the Kings beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Kings defense there ranks 29th (48.7% allowed).

    How the Rockets beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrange12.8% of Rockets shots come from midrange (2nd most), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at BucksFinal

    How the Cavaliers beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 25th (40.1% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Cavaliers

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at NuggetsFinal

    How the Celtics beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Celtics shoot 70.5% at the rim (2nd), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Celtics

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Nuggets shoot 37.8% from above the break (1st), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Nuggets defense there ranks 11th (34.2% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.