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Game plans · Thursday, October 23

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Kings at Bulls

How the Kings beat the Bulls

  1. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
  2. TempoSlow it downThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

How the Bulls beat the Kings

  1. AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 332.3% of Bulls shots come from above the break (9th most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Bulls defense there ranks 6th (42.4% allowed).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Zach LaVineLaVine (19.2 points per game): best from the corners (45% on 55 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%). 37% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
  5. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Kings at 98.5 (16th). Run and make them keep up.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneSAC offenseCHI defenseCHI offenseSAC defense
At the rim68.2% (6th)65.0% (8th)62.7% (30th)69.8% (28th)
Paint45.7% (9th)42.4% (6th)44.0% (18th)48.7% (29th)
Midrange41.8% (16th)43.1% (25th)41.0% (18th)43.7% (27th)
Corner 335.1% (28th)37.4% (7th)37.3% (22nd)39.0% (17th)
Above-the-break 333.7% (25th)36.6% (29th)34.9% (17th)37.6% (30th)

Matchups on Thu, Oct 23

2 games
  • Thunder at PacersFinal

    How the Thunder beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Thunder shoot 46.1% in the paint (7th), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Pacers beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at WarriorsFinal

    How the Nuggets beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).

    How the Warriors beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.