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Game plans · Tuesday, December 15

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Suns at Grizzlies

How the Suns beat the Grizzlies

  1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Suns defense there ranks 14th (44.1% allowed).
  3. AttackAttack midrange11.7% of Suns shots come from midrange (6th most), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
  4. TempoSlow it downThe Suns play at 96.3 possessions per 48 minutes (24th in pace), the Grizzlies at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
  5. Key scorerKey scorer: Ty JeromeJerome (19.7 points per game): best in the paint (53% on 64 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%). 40% on the left side, 47% on the right; push him left.

How the Grizzlies beat the Suns

  1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
  2. TempoPush the paceThe Grizzlies play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZonePHX offenseMEM defenseMEM offensePHX defense
At the rim65.8% (17th)68.4% (24th)64.1% (25th)67.9% (23rd)
Paint43.7% (19th)44.9% (21st)45.9% (8th)44.1% (14th)
Midrange42.3% (11th)43.1% (24th)40.3% (19th)42.0% (16th)
Corner 339.6% (7th)39.6% (23rd)36.5% (27th)36.4% (3rd)
Above-the-break 335.1% (13th)35.2% (18th)34.8% (18th)34.0% (5th)

Matchups on Tue, Dec 15

2 games
  • Spurs at Cavaliers8:00 PM ET

    How the Spurs beat the Cavaliers

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.9% of Spurs shots come from the corners (1st most), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    How the Cavaliers beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at Trail Blazers11:00 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Nuggets play at 97.7 possessions per 48 minutes (20th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim33.5% of Trail Blazers shots come at the rim (4th most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.