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Game plans

Thursday, October 22

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Suns at Trail Blazers

How the Suns beat the Trail Blazers

  1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd), and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
  2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd) and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).
  3. TempoSlow it downThe Suns play at 96.3 possessions per 48 minutes (24th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

How the Trail Blazers beat the Suns

  1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd) and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
  2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd), and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).
  3. AttackAttack the rim33.5% of Trail Blazers shots come at the rim (4th most), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Trail Blazers play at 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes (9th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.
  5. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZonePHX offensePOR defensePOR offensePHX defense
At the rim65.8% (17th)65.3% (13th)64.9% (22nd)67.9% (23rd)
Paint43.7% (19th)44.1% (16th)38.7% (29th)44.1% (14th)
Midrange42.3% (11th)42.1% (19th)37.5% (27th)42.0% (16th)
Corner 339.6% (7th)39.0% (19th)34.4% (30th)36.4% (3rd)
Above-the-break 335.1% (13th)34.5% (14th)34.2% (21st)34.0% (5th)

02Matchups on Thu, Oct 22

2 games
  • Cavaliers at 76ers7:00 PM ET

    How the Cavaliers beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at Thunder9:30 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Thunder shoot 67.2% at the rim (10th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.