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Game plans · Monday, March 29

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Magic at Hawks

How the Magic beat the Hawks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

How the Hawks beat the Magic

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneORL offenseATL defenseATL offenseORL defense
At the rim65.4% (19th)65.2% (10th)64.9% (21st)67.5% (21st)
Paint40.3% (26th)44.2% (18th)45.0% (14th)45.3% (23rd)
Midrange43.0% (10th)42.0% (17th)42.3% (13th)42.1% (18th)
Corner 338.4% (15th)38.1% (10th)38.9% (11th)38.5% (13th)
Above-the-break 332.6% (30th)34.6% (15th)36.4% (4th)34.2% (7th)

Matchups on Mon, Mar 29

8 games
  • Timberwolves at Hawks7:00 PM ET

    How the Timberwolves beat the Hawks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 311.7% of Hawks shots come from the corners (8th most), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at Cavaliers7:00 PM ET

    How the Heat beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Heat shoot 35.6% from above the break (9th), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Cavaliers beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Cavaliers play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at Pistons7:00 PM ET

    How the Clippers beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Pistons beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Pistons play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at Nets7:30 PM ET

    How the Warriors beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    How the Nets beat the Warriors

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Warriors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at Bulls8:00 PM ET

    How the Pacers beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrange11.6% of Pacers shots come from midrange (7th most), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    How the Bulls beat the Pacers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at Bucks8:00 PM ET

    How the Mavericks beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Mavericks defense there ranks 6th (37.2% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Bucks play at 96.8 possessions per 48 minutes (23rd in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at Spurs9:30 PM ET

    How the Suns beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrange11.7% of Suns shots come from midrange (6th most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Spurs beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rim32.3% of Spurs shots come at the rim (7th most), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Spurs play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at Kings10:00 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Nuggets shoot 37.8% from above the break (1st), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).

    How the Kings beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Kings shoot 68.2% at the rim (6th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.