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Game plans · Saturday, January 30

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Magic at Rockets

How the Magic beat the Rockets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Magic defense there ranks 23rd (45.3% allowed).
  3. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Magic play at 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes (12th in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.

How the Rockets beat the Magic

  1. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
  3. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Magic at 99.3 (12th). Make it a half-court game.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneORL offenseHOU defenseHOU offenseORL defense
At the rim65.4% (19th)65.3% (12th)65.8% (16th)67.5% (21st)
Paint40.3% (26th)44.1% (15th)47.2% (6th)45.3% (23rd)
Midrange43.0% (10th)39.1% (2nd)40.2% (20th)42.1% (18th)
Corner 338.4% (15th)38.5% (12th)37.3% (21st)38.5% (13th)
Above-the-break 332.6% (30th)34.1% (6th)36.1% (7th)34.2% (7th)

Matchups on Sat, Jan 30

8 games
  • 76ers at Heat12:30 PM ET

    How the 76ers beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe 76ers play at 98.8 possessions per 48 minutes (15th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Heat beat the 76ers

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at Thunder3:00 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Thunder shoot 67.2% at the rim (10th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at Warriors5:30 PM ET

    How the Spurs beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.9% of Spurs shots come from the corners (1st most), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    How the Warriors beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at Pacers7:00 PM ET

    How the Wizards beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    How the Pacers beat the Wizards

    1. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Pacers defense there ranks 30th (45.4% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony DavisDavis (20.4 points per game): best in the paint (44% on 77 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (38%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pelicans at Cavaliers7:30 PM ET

    How the Pelicans beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Pelicans shoot 39.2% from the corners (9th), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Cavaliers beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hawks at Bucks8:00 PM ET

    How the Hawks beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Hawks defense there ranks 10th (38.1% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Hawks

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Bucks play at 96.8 possessions per 48 minutes (23rd in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at Knicks8:30 PM ET

    How the Lakers beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Lakers defense there ranks 8th (37.7% allowed).

    How the Knicks beat the Lakers

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Knicks shoot 44.9% from midrange (2nd), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at Jazz9:30 PM ET

    How the Grizzlies beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Grizzlies

    1. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Jazz defense there ranks 30th (48.8% allowed).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Grizzlies allow 44.9% there (21st of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.