Game plans · Wednesday, December 17
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Magic at Nuggets
How the Magic beat the Nuggets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).
How the Nuggets beat the Magic
- AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
| Zone | ORL offense | DEN defense | DEN offense | ORL defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 65.4% (19th) | 69.1% (27th) | 66.7% (13th) | 67.5% (21st) |
| Paint | 40.3% (26th) | 45.3% (22nd) | 48.4% (2nd) | 45.3% (23rd) |
| Midrange | 43.0% (10th) | 40.4% (10th) | 44.8% (3rd) | 42.1% (18th) |
| Corner 3 | 38.4% (15th) | 36.5% (4th) | 44.2% (1st) | 38.5% (13th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 32.6% (30th) | 34.2% (11th) | 37.8% (1st) | 34.2% (7th) |
Matchups on Wed, Dec 17
- Cavaliers at Bulls
How the Cavaliers beat the Bulls
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.3% of Cavaliers shots come from above the break (7th most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
How the Bulls beat the Cavaliers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
- AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).
- Grizzlies at Timberwolves
How the Grizzlies beat the Timberwolves
- Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
How the Timberwolves beat the Grizzlies
- Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 8th (42.9% allowed).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Ty JeromeJerome (19.7 points per game): best in the paint (53% on 64 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%). 40% on the left side, 47% on the right; push him left.
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.