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Game plans · Wednesday, December 30

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Thunder at Rockets

How the Thunder beat the Rockets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Thunder defense there ranks 1st (39.9% allowed).
  3. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Thunder play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.

How the Rockets beat the Thunder

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
  2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Rockets shoot 36.1% from above the break (7th), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).
  3. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Thunder at 98.5 (16th). Make it a half-court game.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneOKC offenseHOU defenseHOU offenseOKC defense
At the rim67.2% (10th)65.3% (12th)65.8% (16th)60.1% (1st)
Paint46.1% (7th)44.1% (15th)47.2% (6th)39.9% (1st)
Midrange48.1% (1st)39.1% (2nd)40.2% (20th)38.0% (1st)
Corner 338.1% (17th)38.5% (12th)37.3% (21st)39.9% (24th)
Above-the-break 335.9% (8th)34.1% (6th)36.1% (7th)35.6% (23rd)

Matchups on Wed, Dec 30

6 games
  • Pelicans at Pistons7:00 PM ET

    How the Pelicans beat the Pistons

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd) and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    How the Pistons beat the Pelicans

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd), and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
    2. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at Raptors7:30 PM ET

    How the Wizards beat the Raptors

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).

    How the Raptors beat the Wizards

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th), and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at Bulls8:00 PM ET

    How the Celtics beat the Bulls

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).

    How the Bulls beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Bulls defense there ranks 29th (36.6% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • 76ers at Suns9:00 PM ET

    How the 76ers beat the Suns

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim33.4% of 76ers shots come at the rim (5th most), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Suns beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Knicks at Jazz9:00 PM ET

    How the Knicks beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Knicks shoot 44.9% from midrange (2nd), and the Jazz allow 44.1% there (28th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Jazz defense there ranks 21st (39.2% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at Warriors10:00 PM ET

    How the Rockets beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrange12.8% of Rockets shots come from midrange (2nd most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).

    How the Warriors beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Warriors defense there ranks 26th (47.0% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.