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Game plans · Saturday, December 19

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Thunder at Bucks

How the Thunder beat the Bucks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Thunder defense there ranks 24th (39.9% allowed).
  3. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd), and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
  4. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Thunder shoot 35.9% from above the break (8th), and the Bucks allow 36.4% there (26th of 30).
  5. AttackAttack the rimThe Thunder shoot 67.2% at the rim (10th), and the Bucks allow 68.5% there (25th of 30).

How the Bucks beat the Thunder

  1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
  3. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).
  4. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneOKC offenseMIL defenseMIL offenseOKC defense
At the rim67.2% (10th)68.5% (25th)68.7% (5th)60.1% (1st)
Paint46.1% (7th)41.1% (3rd)42.7% (23rd)39.9% (1st)
Midrange48.1% (1st)42.0% (15th)42.3% (12th)38.0% (1st)
Corner 338.1% (17th)41.1% (29th)42.9% (2nd)39.9% (24th)
Above-the-break 335.9% (8th)36.4% (26th)36.9% (2nd)35.6% (23rd)

Matchups on Sat, Dec 19

4 games
  • Trail Blazers at Hornets6:00 PM ET

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Trail Blazers defense there ranks 14th (34.5% allowed).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th) and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).

    How the Hornets beat the Trail Blazers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th), and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Trail Blazers force turnovers on 13.0% of plays (7th) and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at Hawks7:00 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Hawks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at Mavericks8:00 PM ET

    How the Bulls beat the Mavericks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    How the Mavericks beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at Nuggets9:00 PM ET

    How the Lakers beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.