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Game plans · Saturday, November 21

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Thunder at Bucks

How the Thunder beat the Bucks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Thunder defense there ranks 24th (39.9% allowed).
  3. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd), and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
  4. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Thunder shoot 35.9% from above the break (8th), and the Bucks allow 36.4% there (26th of 30).
  5. AttackAttack the rimThe Thunder shoot 67.2% at the rim (10th), and the Bucks allow 68.5% there (25th of 30).

How the Bucks beat the Thunder

  1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
  3. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).
  4. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneOKC offenseMIL defenseMIL offenseOKC defense
At the rim67.2% (10th)68.5% (25th)68.7% (5th)60.1% (1st)
Paint46.1% (7th)41.1% (3rd)42.7% (23rd)39.9% (1st)
Midrange48.1% (1st)42.0% (15th)42.3% (12th)38.0% (1st)
Corner 338.1% (17th)41.1% (29th)42.9% (2nd)39.9% (24th)
Above-the-break 335.9% (8th)36.4% (26th)36.9% (2nd)35.6% (23rd)

Matchups on Sat, Nov 21

6 games
  • Bucks at 76ers1:00 PM ET

    How the Bucks beat the 76ers

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe 76ers force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The 76ers defense there ranks 20th (39.1% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at Knicks7:30 PM ET

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Trail Blazers defense there ranks 19th (39.0% allowed).

    How the Knicks beat the Trail Blazers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Knicks grab 29.3% of their misses (5th), and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Knicks play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at Mavericks8:00 PM ET

    How the Clippers beat the Mavericks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Clippers shots come in the paint (6th most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).

    How the Mavericks beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at Timberwolves8:00 PM ET

    How the Grizzlies beat the Timberwolves

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Grizzlies

    1. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 8th (42.9% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Ty JeromeJerome (19.7 points per game): best in the paint (53% on 64 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%). 40% on the left side, 47% on the right; push him left.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pelicans at Spurs8:00 PM ET

    How the Pelicans beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    How the Spurs beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at Kings10:00 PM ET

    How the Celtics beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Celtics shoot 70.5% at the rim (2nd), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).

    How the Kings beat the Celtics

    1. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Kings defense there ranks 30th (37.6% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.